Dorian & the Cold Front..Like the Owl & The Pussycat..

So much to say and not sure where to start.  So, being me I will just jump in as if I am dancing to music played to loud in the back yard and pretending no one is looking....

The Life and Times of Dorian, the Fourth Tropical System of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, came to life briefly before being written out of the script and ending up on the cutting room floor once again. But, in the end he got his name back and was given a brief mention in the credits at the end of the movie.

The official line is that he ran off with a diving cold front for parts unknown, leaving behind his tropical wardrobe in exchange for an early Fall Wardrobe. That same early fall wardrobe is by the way littering my neighbors yard with yellow leaves that changed colors to soon and fell off the tree too early. I keep reminding myself it's the "First Week of August" and saying it over and over like mantra to hold onto reality, but every time I look at a satellite loop or the neighbor's yard covered with fallen leaves it disappears faster than a newly named Tropical Depression on August 3rd by the NHC.

What were they thinking I keep thinking to myself and then I chuckle, amused and wanting to see how this particular track will be drawn for history or wondering if it will be written out in the post season and wondering who will get to have the final say on Dorian at the NHC.

What I find odd and very telling, however not surprising, is that Avila wrote him off without proof that he was no longer a closed low. Isn't that opinion vs hard facts? Seems a bit strange. His exact words in the discussion are:  "Difficult to ascertain if a closed circulation still exists" and then adds in convection may flare up "before dissipation in a day or so."  That implies Dorian is still there, just since no one is sure they are going to write him off and end the discussion. From a scientific point of view, that is like 2 + 2 + 3.  You be the judge, the discussion is posted below for your viewing pleasure.

"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
STILL EXISTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS NOW CONSIDERED A
REMNANT LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE LOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENT CONVECTION BEFORE
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 31.7N  77.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  04/0600Z 33.0N  75.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA"
 

And, the odd poem that is politically no longer correct comes to mind when thinking of Dorian and the Cold Front.

I

The Owl and the Pussy-cat went to sea     In a beautiful pea green boat, They took some honey, and plenty of money,     Wrapped up in a five pound note. The Owl looked up to the stars above,     And sang to a small guitar, 'O lovely Pussy! O Pussy my love,       What a beautiful Pussy you are,           You are,           You are! What a beautiful Pussy you are!'

II

Pussy said to the Owl, 'You elegant fowl!     How charmingly sweet you sing! O let us be married! too long we have tarried:     But what shall we do for a ring?' They sailed away, for a year and a day,     To the land where the Bong-tree grows And there in a wood a Piggy-wig stood     With a ring at the end of his nose,           His nose,           His nose, With a ring at the end of his nose.

The funny part of this poem is that there is a 3rd part and this 3rd part could oddly play out down the road. There is now a stalled out frontal boundary and the remnants left behind from Dorian (after he sailed away with the convection in the cold front according to Avila) and it doesn't seem to want to go away. So, that area of lingering convection off the East Coast of Florida needs to be watched for any signs of close in development.

Note that the models show that the Owl and the Pussycat travel off to the North Atlantic. The pig stays home.

III

'Dear pig, are you willing to sell for one shilling     Your ring?' Said the Piggy, 'I will.' So they took it away, and were married next day     By the Turkey who lives on the hill. They dined on mince, and slices of quince,     Which they ate with a runcible spoon; And hand in hand, on the edge of the sand,     They danced by the light of the moon,           The moon,           The moon, They danced by the light of the moon.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmnnnnn. Seems some have all the fun, and some have to stay home.

I may have posted part of this poem before, if so I don't care. Some things in life repeat often and have a strong meaning that bears repeating.   :)

Keep watching any lingering convection for signs of any new tropical formation close in..  Not likely, but possible. 

So, this is the final installment it seems on Dorian and his final track.

Now we move on to the rest of the Tropical Atlantic.

The oddest thing is the first thing I saw after going on the computer this evening is the gray blob in the middle of the Atlantic that is the African Dust Cloud that is making it's way west where tropical waves should be.

There are waves, they are just sort of picked bone dry for now. Oh, and that area off the SE Coast that shall remain nameless.

Eventually that area of rain of of South Florida should go away... maybe.

Here's a treat... a big, BIG look at the HUGE area of Saharan Dust that is oozing it's way fast towards out side of the world. By the way, it doesn't have a name either... 

Right now the African Dust taking up half of the Atlantic Ocean is the most compelling thing to look at..

Besos Bobbi

Ps... It was fun watching him get his name back...if only for a little while. More on that tomorrow...(and ps yes my friend I knew who killed him off even before reading the discussion ;)  you taught me well... )

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/cstuff2/cstuff2java5.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/cstuff1/cstuff1java5.html