Zero Yellow Circle Near The Caribbean... Better Chances with the African Wave...
Good Morning! The NHC has highlighted a wave moving into the Eastern Caribbean with a bright yellow marker and given it a chance of Zero development. I have a sarcastic friend who is probably thinking, "Why bother?" It's a good question. They ignore the stronger wave near Africa that doesn't rate a Zero Yellow Circle just yet. So, why is a good question.
For one it has made it across the ocean under extremely negative conditions that would likely have sucked the life out of any other way. Secondly there were some models that showed a wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico...Western Caribbean even and developing several days ago. Of course the models do not show that now, they are rather silent. As Jimmy Buffett sings "somethings a mystery to me" and it works for this morning's blog.
Odd, sweet little video of people vacationing in the Keys. Works for an odd little yellow circle.
Further East the models do develop the nice wave off of Africa. It's most likely a sacrificial wave for the waves behind it, but it's slim pickens out there and it is worth watching.
Putting up a wide loop so you can watch various things as well as the African Wave just entering the scene on state right.
The Upper Level Low that has been anchored in the Bahamas for most of this past month on a peek a boo basis is so large the models have been tracking that. Well it's more a situation again of an Upper Level Low and a Tropical Wave ALA my post of the other day. Still relevant though different names, same concept.
Until ONE system takes over and grabs our attention with the intensity of the Upper Level Low in the Loop above it's going to be a wait and see situation.
In the Pacific which I rarely discuss there is a wait and see situation developing regarding the models. The GFS has consistently developed an 'I" storm and yet the "I" storm is no where to be seen. Truth be told I do see a wave and a place it can develop, but everyone is calling the GFS out on this possibly tropical blunder. Only time will tell. It's not in my basin and I'm not watching it. Just saying when a model in any basin is seeing hallucinations of the tropical kind... you have to figure that in down the line.
Liking the African wave more and more every time I peak at it. It really deserves a yellow zero circle in my opinion...
Here are the official areas to watch from the other map... notice the close in area in the Gulf that I have mentioned for a while now (lingering frontal boundaries with adjacent low pressure) and notice the really large SWATH of the Eastern Atlantic that is highlighted in MY favorite colors.
Oddly nothing where the NHC put their morning yellow circle. Maybe the threw a dart??? Just kidding. There is always a reason even if we don't know what that reason is so... keep on trucking :)
Have a great day and a better tomorrow! That is how life should be led, every day getting better than the last rather than looking back in the rear view mirror..