Before we look at the GOM 10% Blob that may develop into a Gulf of Mexico Weak Storm the Canadian Model is developing a LARGER Tropical Cyclone in the ATLANTIC. Grated the Canadian does get accused of overexaggerating but even if you scale it back some....shows a wave that goes the distance.
And, so I thought that was worth leading with as I am a Miami girl who lives in the Carolinas a good part of the time. If I was a Houston girl I would most likely be staring at the Caribbean for any signs of action. Mind you in October I always stare at the Caribbean.
Of course the GFS doesn't see. I like to think of the Canadian as seeing potential that the GS later latches on to and refines if there is really something there. Just my thought after careful observation over the years.
Note none of the models do much with the Gulf of Mexico system. The GFS hints something can come together, but it keeps it weak.
The NWS does not have it on their 7 day map for the US and only shows stormy weather and a lot of tropical moisture feeding up into a stalled out front draped across areas of Georgia that do not need more rain.
What do we see on the "juice loop" ???
We see a "roll" beginning on the Atlantic Wave and tropical energy congregating in the Caribbean.
As I have said for the last few days I think the timing has been off on this GOM system. There is mucho shear in the Caribbean from the Upper Level Low. And, the formation of this possible system is going slow.
As much as the models were excited about a GOM system, this graph keeps screaming Atlantic. Maybe not screaming, but definitely raising it's voice. Models haven't done much with it until now and ... with all the dry air it would seem to be overdone. Maybe not.
What do we actually know?
The high is really strong today.
And, there is more color out in the Atlantic than in the Caribbean currently which is interesting.
Loop the loop:
To my favorite tune of the day ;)
BobbiStorm's Botton Line:
Something wants t form in the Caribbean, but can it? Will it? If it does and it gets into the Gulf..somehow... there is abundant energy for tropical trouble. The Affican Wave is a ong shot but tatalizing. Then again how many people buy a dollar lotto ticket when the lotto is 100 million dollars?
Ps.. I'll be on the road today so I should probably be quiet until thivening....but you never know. And, by the way no way everyone knows a place like Kokomo... it's in the Florida Keys... and as close as you get is South Beach ;) if you don't want to leave the mainland... I do.