Model Confusion Continues. What's in the Atlantic? Hmmmn

Official discussion reads as follows:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA

I'm still convinced of a few things...

1.. Timing on this is everything and if the timing is off the system is not going to intensify. If this system develops slowly and waits for the ULL to move by and get out of its way it could develop rapidly in the extremely warm bath tub water of the Gulf of Mexico.

2.. That area out in the Atlantic well East of Florida wrapped up in the ULL is worth watching.



There is some transformation going out there. It can strengthen the ULL or weaken it and that Upper Level Low is yanking the chain with regard to the strong high pressure over the Atlantic.It links to the ULL that is currently moving into the GOM.

Truth is there are so many Upper Level Lows to look at this year should be The Year of the ULL!

There is a Mason Dixie Line Meteorologically speaking across the US. To the north everything is sliding East. To the south everything is sliding West. This will move to the north and the south depending on daily interaction with other features. Along that line something could develop, spin... more than just daily tropical downpours and sporadic showers. It's a matter of degrees. Too close to an ULL and the ULL wins and destroys the disturbance. Situation just far enough away and to the South a bit and it can ventilate it.

The Canadian Model which is often made fun of it often right on tropical systems and more so gives indications that we need which is why we use it.



Two systems on the same run. The Wave in the Eastern Atlantic maintains itself as well as the Gulf of Mexico hosts a strong Tropical Storm at the least.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013081212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

3.   There is a roll forming on the Cape Verde Wave.




Notice how the moisture from the ITZ punches oddly through the dry dust into the ULL and begins to wrap just a bit. Might be nothing but I'm watching it.  Both the Wave and the ULL spinning with adjacent moisture getting caught up in it. Just in case.

Look at the Water Vapor Loop:



GFS shows a weak tropical disturbance in the Gulf and tries to hold onto to the Wave and the High might get busted up in the process somewhere along the way and if that happens it's bigger than a tropical depression forming somewhere.  The High has been the one constant in the Atlantic with its dust.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013081212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


I'm watching the changes taking place slowly in the Atlantic and the wave. Not like I got anything better to write about tropically speaking. Trust me if the storm in the Caribbean forms I will be all over it in multiple daily posts discussing all the possible options.



Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi

Check out this little variation on the GFS showing vorticity... hmmm Myami...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013081212&field=500mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation