Erin Downgraded to Tropical Depression... Invest 92L at 10%

Mystery Invest... 92L



I call it that cause it's a mystery to me why we have been watching it for days.

Seems sort of black and white to me. Nothing there, nothing really has been there and possibly never will be there. It could and that should be in gray... could... possibly...form a small circulation that moves off towards TX/MX border.. maybe.

The water vapor loop also shows a big dry slot moving down into the Gulf of Mexico.



See the really dry arrow of darkness moving down into the Gulf of Mexico across Oklahoma and down through Texas? That is not exactly conducive to a developing tropical storm that feeds off warm, moist air vs a Mid August Cold Front going all the way into the GOM.

Nada... nothing happening. Infact the NHC has lowered it's chances to 10% with a yellow circle. When my friend and I saw that today we high fived each other. I mean how long can you watch TWC hype a non-existent system and a wayward ULL traveling across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico with no real signs of circulation and no real convection.

This is an exercise in tropical insanity. Okay, a couple of days ago the models were bullish. We never give up on any wave when a model or two of importance pay attention. We are no longer watching the waves we are it seems watching the models.

Invest 92L may go down in history as the most watched Invest in history if it doesn't develop into a weak TD somewhere before it hits land.

As for Erin... it's been downgraded to a Tropical Depression
Weak, very weak.



Already talk that it might become a remnant low...  but it has a long way to go if it can stay together so we can write it off another day if it indeed is going to die out.

Here's the actual discussion explaining why the NHC is watching it for future development down the line IF it stays alive and how and why Erin might move more to the WNW and get under neath a stronger high IF it survives.

From 5 PM Discussion.

ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS.

From 11 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
48 HOURS.  THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS.

ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10.  A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED
THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY
SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE
WESTWARD TRACK.  ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED
BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 20.7N  37.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 21.3N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 21.9N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 22.5N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 23.0N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

So if you are wondering if that's all there is and we are going from summer to winter without any hurricane season you are so, so wrong.

Nooo... it's just still early and the season begins to ramp up this week and as the say going August
Get Ready, September Remember.

June       --     too soon.
July       --     stand by.
August     --     look out you must.
September  --     remember.
October    --     all over.

There's a reason that's an old saying... it's true!


So, where is the color of the tropics? The life? The energy? Have we moved from summer straight into winter without any Hurricane Season? The Color is Coming...





So I wouldn't write off the season just yet because before September we haven't had some big Major Cane.

I'll say it ONE MORE TIME... this week when it's quiet in August... GET READY.

Frequently asked questions from AOML/HRD...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

A good read is cut and pasted below from the Librarian at the NHC.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...and tomorrow when you wake up... go out and buy what you need just in case. Makes some lists and then go out and have a great day.

Remember...September is around the corner!

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&..............just do it!

NOAA Hurricane and Hurricane Preparation Materials

By Gloria Aversano, Librarian

National Hurricane Center Library

Updated April, 2013

The National Weather Service, Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (pdf) has been updated for 2013 and is located on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/hurricane/resources/TropicalCyclones11.pdf
The main updates were:
1.  added a definition for post-tropical cyclone (and include post-tropical cyclone in the watch/warning definitions)
2.  update mobile/smartphone links (including removing the link for email advisories, which have been discontinued)
3.  and add social media (Facebook and Twitter) links and handles for NHC and CPHC/WFO Honolulu

NOAA Brochures

The following are online at: http://www.weather.gov/os/brochures.shtml Printed copies of some publications may also be ordered.  See online instructions.

201152 96071 200652 Download 200465 Download Download Download Download Download Download Download

Tropical Cyclones, 4/13, Espanol, 6/12 Atlantic Hurricane Tracking Chart: pdf, png Hurricane Safety Flyer: Before, During and After a Hurricane, trifold pdf Hurricane Safety Flyer: Before, During and After a Hurricane, flyer pdf Tropical Cyclone Flooding: A Deadly Inland Danger Introduction to Storm Surge, Espanol, 6/12 La Seguridad de Tiempo: Los Huracanes, pdf or htm Espanol Hawaiian Hurricane Safety Measures Central Pacific Tracking Chart  Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Names Red Cross Hurricane Safety Checklist, English, Spanish East Pacific Hurricane Tracking Map: 12" x 24"

Web Sites

Extreme Weather Emergency Contact Sheets – by state and region: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/activities/weather-ready-nation/newis/

Hurricanes....unleashing natures's fury: A preparedness guide (2007): http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/pdfs/HurricanesUNF07.pdf

Weather Safety: Hurricanes Safety and Preparedness Fact Sheet (before, during and after the storm) : http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hurricane/pdfs/hurricane-safety_flyer.pdf    

Hurricane Preparedness Week : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml  This web site offers a ‘Be Prepared” page with a family preparedness plan, creating a disaster supply kit, having a place to go, securing your home and having a pet plan.  It also offers a downloadable high resolution poster, links to marine safety, and MP3 of Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, discussing preparedness.

Plywood Hurricane Shutter Instructions: A Short Lesson in Building Effective Shutters, Stan Goldenberg, NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division : 1999 online at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/shutters/index2.html

Hurricane Research Division Frequently Asked Questions about Hurricanes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

NOAA Weather Radio - http://www.weather.gov/nwr/  Offers station listings, coverage maps, and information on receivers, emergency alert system, special needs, general information and FAQs.

Hurricane Watch Net – amateur radio serving the National Hurricane Center since 1965 - Hurricane preparedness information and streaming audio available.

NOAA 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/  offers a prediction of hurricane activity for the upcoming season. This outlook is posted the third week in May and revised in August of each year.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Hurricane Awareness. http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/index.shtml

Offers hurricane warnings and forecasts, be prepared guides, brochures and more.

Emergency management offices by state -  http://www.fema.gov/regional-operations/state-offices-and-agencies-emergency-management

Education Links

NOAA Education Web Site - Safety tips page: http://www.education.noaa.gov/csafety.html

NOAA. Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. Playtime for kids. Hurricanes: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/reachout/kidspage.shtml

NOAA. Natioal Weather Service - Jetstream – An online weather school: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/

National Weather Service Southern Region Skywatcher Chart: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/skywatcher.htm