92L in the GOM..STILL Trying to Get It Together.. Is Erin a Fish Storm? Is the F Storm Coming Off of Africa?
Sorry this was put out late today as I like to get a post up in the morning. But, I've been trying to get a feel for Invest 92L and why Erin is looking like a Fish Storm so fast and watching the wave moving towards the Islands that is not being written about but looks like it should. I like to give to this blog my best. I don't think the models have been giving us the best this past week and that opens the door for a lot of questions.
Let's start first with the weaker system that is closer to the US and has the possibility of a land fall as a weak tropical storm that has yet to form... but the models intensify in a few days. It has a 50% chance of forming at Noon and is dressed in orange and located in the BOC which is basically the SW GOM.
First off all...there are a lot of IFS in the discussion from the NHC. The salient part of the discussion is below. See what I mean?
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS..
What is all the fuss about this system that seems never to be able to pull it together? In the old days of John Hope and Bob Sheets they would not have been even talking about it other than saying "an area of cloudiness and low pressures persists in the" but today we have models that we seem to rely on for predicting tropical formation. It's not about what you see or don't see. It's about what the models see and the models see the possibility of development down the line. The only problem is that they keep pushing the "line" off further and further. It is a no brainer that if it makes it into the BOC in the SW Gulf of Mexico and has a protected sort of cradle to develop in ...it will develop into a borderline storm and head for the Tex Mex Border. It could intensify strong enough for a frontal boundary to notice it on the radar and try and zap it up north where it could cause a lot of rain in places that do not need more rain. Somehow those dry areas of Texas always get screwed here, which is why they are so dry.
And the models are shown below. Not much has changed except for the timing...
Let's take a look at my blog.
On August 11th I said that we were watching model predictions and nothing had really come together. Still true. I was obviously skeptical on something developing in such a negative area for development. I hoped the models saw something I didn't... but we have to show the models because that is what they are discussion at the NHC vs the general synoptics of the tropical basin.
"Currently there is nothing much going on in the tropics. I waited today for the next set of models to run before posting my thoughts on the possibility of tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico. There has been a lot of discussion today when the GFS model showed a land falling system along the Upper Gulf Coast. You know the drill, a wave ...some convection, lower barometric pressure... a front dipping down. Mind you the last front stalled out and North Carolina had record hot temperatures this weekend..or close. This front would be in the mid section of the country, but still way too far out for the crystal ball to give a good reading on what the future holds anywhere along the Gulf Coast. But, I think it's fair to say that somewhere, sometime along the Gulf Coast something is going to form soon. And, after that bar is reached in the tropical season...look East as the Atlantic will percolate!
Look on August 13th which was a few days ago...
I led with a story on the East Atlantic Wave that I felt was a long shot, but might have a better show at being Erin. I was right. Again I complained on the timing of the Gulf System being off and remember this storm was supposed to be threatening the Upper Gulf Coast today as I write this.. Oh ERIN formed from the Cape Verde Wave that I was in love with....
Today we are still looking at models on the Gulf system developing. At some point it might and we will then be talking about if it's a TD or a TS and where it is going. Going to say "probably" not "maybe" here as things do tend to spin up in the BOC after they come off of the Yucatan.
Today the Invest is coming off of the Yucatan into a Upper Level Low that is spinning in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm surprised it even has a 50% chance, but that is because of the faith the models have shown in it (for days now ...) in developing eventually. You have to go home with the girl you brought to the dance, right? Well, maybe not. Mitt Romney went home with his friend's date and look how long they have been together. Maybe I am digressing here, but at some point you have to look at a losing situation and ask "why am I doing this" and either change your game plan, adjust your sails or sail away even if for just a day or two. It's like everyone has been banging their head against the wall trying to get Invest 92 to DO SOMETHING. And, it might but when it is ready...not when the models are and may I point out the models seem to have missed the formation of the ULL and the TUTT. So, maybe the models need a talking to...
Look at the visible...
Maybe...slowly... but if I was baking challah I'd probably have gone to the store and bought fresher yeast and started a new batch of dough by now. Probably also would have baked off a loaf or two and seen what it did and how bad it came out. Right now... 92L is still looking bad, it's models are looking better.
Only time will tell. Mind you the models are also off a bit with Erin who is weaker than they predicted and pulling faster to the right than expected. Mind you IF Erin developed into a stronger storm pulling to the NW fast would make sense. A weak storm usually goes WEST... not NW. Explain that one?
Here's an oddity not being talked about. Watch the wave in the Central Atlantic trying to spin up and note it has been doing so for the last 24 hours steadily.
Models for Erin currently scream FISH STORM. Note behind Erin seems to be the F Storm and that is not based on models, but based on the fact that it is one hunky Cape Verde Wave.
Erin is the lead wave, the F Storm is behind it about to put it's feet into the Atlantic with it's eyes on the Cape Verde Islands.
Watch the "juice loop" on this one and when you see orange rolling you know it's a winner.
Note that Invest 92 ALMOST pulled it together prior to crashing into the Yucatan and falling apart. Oh, and the Yucatan there is flat so don't go blaming that on high mountains. Just saying.
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Recon was canceled again for Invest 92L. Says it all. Better luck tomorrow. Keep running those models..
Again, a weak Tropical Storm is busting through a High Pressure Ridge that was rock solid a few days ago. Sort of goes against CLIMO doesn't it?
The Navy Site's forecasted track for Erin.
Oddy I went out last night to meet my daughter's boyfriend. Seems he uses a Hurricane App and he could tell it was looking like it had recurvature all over it. But, the models a few days back didn't see that.
One possible answer is that this year the weather is not in sync with CLIMO. It's 63 degrees in Raleigh according to my phone App. It is not usually 63 in Mid August, not even LATE August. My husband has lived there 30 years? He has never seen it so cold consistently in August that he can remember. Considering the models do have a lot of CLIMO built in they may be expecting this year's storms to comply with rules of tropical science that are often broken in real time.
Why the High opened up wide... not 100% sure though I have heard various answers none of which are very good ones.
So, that it is for today from Miami or really Hollywood, Florida where I am looping loops, taking walks, talking to best friends and enjoying sunny weather which ...by the way...was not in the forecast.
Maybe those weather models need to be slapped silly a bit or rebooted, because nothing seems normal this year. Having a slumber party at my best friend's this Shabbos. Girl talk or our girl talk which is usually weather and sometimes football :)
I'll be back later... really, really loving that Central Atlantic Wave trying to pull it together south of the Dust and what's left of the high approaching the Caribbean.
Last thought... either something is meant to be or it's not. Sometimes there is a chemistry and you can't explain it even the best chemist can't explain how we are connected. There are a few people I have loved so much over the last several decades of my life. May not add up on paper, but it's just the way it is and it's based on some deep karmic connection I suppose. Sometimes storms are like that. They look really good on paper and the models think they would be just perfect and they never work out.
""we live our lives in chain and we never even know we have the key"
Other times you can look at a wave and just KNOW it's not going away and that you are never going to stop staring at it on loops. They are feeling strong and they take off... You can't force bad chemistry to work it may develop but it will always be mediocre.
Just remember this "just remember this my friend, when you look up in the sky
you can see the stars and still not see the light...:" but I'll add....they are there even when you can't see them... if a storm is going to form you really don't need the models to tell you. But, I'm glad we have them... just the same.