Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 08, 2013

Yellow Blob in Bahamas 0%? Recon Headed into Chantal. NEW Wave off of Africa...

There was talk last week that the ULL in the Atlantic "could" work it's way down to the surface from the Upper and Mid Levels. Then they took that off the table and worried on the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Atlantic for development. Ignoring it in my opinion was wrong and part of a semi-busted forecast.  The ULL is a big player in the whole steering currents scenario and it's convecting really nicely... looks bigger than Chantal and dwarfs the dying frontal boundary.  The Zero % status is their way of saying "yes, YES..we notice it" but it's not going to develop.  I wouldn't put money on that, but then again I'm not a gambler. Do we know for sure it won't develop in the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Florida? There was a model yesterday that blew up a storm in the Gulf of Mexico which was written off as one of those things models do .. maybe that storm in the Gulf is from this ULL?

Just talking possibilities here... because nothing here is carved in stone, nothing.

Excuse my poor drawing in the sketch above .....but stick with my thought process.

1.... The ULL is stronger now than they expected it to be yesterday. It's an important part of the puzzle and it's HUGE.

2... Chantal has a large pocket of moisture but is a very small storm moving very fast west. Small storms can move fast well, change directions easier and well...are totally different storms than big storms. It's gained some latitude today.

3... Oh Look There is Another Wave........

This is the pattern folks. THIS PATTEN is carved in stone for the short term and Florida and the Caribbean is going to have to worry on more than Chantal very soon.

The GFS model shows Chantal maintaining itself ...going over very little land... sort of dying out in the Bahamas but hanging together barely and moving West across Central shows another storm behind it.

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Some models take her across Cuba as a weak storm into the Gulf.

The models still seem to have a diverse way of approaching Chantal. Usually when that happens there is something that has not been figured in yet that is still in the process of happening. Need more information... need more time...

Note South Florida is IN the cone... but on the left side of the cone.

Watch later to see if this cone shifts to the left.

Let me clarify this storm has a long way to go... nothing is locked in other than the outer islands like Barbados and others are in the path of this storm. IF you live in Florida or PR.. pay attention, check your home to make sure you can lock all the windows, check what medical supplies you may need to refill and what updates to your hurricane plans you may need. The problem is not Chantal... the problem is the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has started and it's only going to get busier.

And, currently departing the coast of Africa is what could be the E storm or the F storm...

That is not Chantal several days ago... it's the next possible named storm!

Besos Bobbi


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