Chantal at 11 AM WNW 25 - 45 MPH Winds.

Something to think on... notice how the front that was evident across the SE earlier in the day is not very visible anymore.



The front is there, but it's not very strong. In fact, the moisture embedded in the ULL moving towards South Florida is stronger than the front. Why? Not 100% sure ....but I would say that the warmth of the Gulf Stream added to the "energy" on all levels (both surface, mid-level and upper level).

How much is going to change between now and five days from now I am asking? I would think not a lot.



The system off the coast of FL or is not a "tropical system" but an upper level low.

How strong is that next front later in the summer going to be and how much would you bet on it ...if you were a betting person. I'm not a betting person, unless it's a sure thing, and the strength of that front is NOT a sure thing.

Models currently weaken Chantal as she moves closer to FL based on 1...the land interaction with Haiti and or Cuba (if that happens) and 2... the shear coming around the back side of the front from SW to NE.

Where did the front go?



My concern is not about how strong Chantal is now.. I am more concerned with how strong Chantal will be if and when she is South or Southeast of Florida and I am concerned with how strong this "really strong front" will be if this one died and we are moving further into the July.

11AM is as follows:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
1100 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Note in the discussion that NOW the ULL is the vigorous feature on the map...

BY DAY 3
AND BEYOND...A VIGOROUS MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...CREATING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THIS
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

The cone at 11 AM is shown below.



The question is ....what is going on with the ULL and how strong will the front be and how much land will Chantal interact with?

Those questions have yet to be answered... keep watching... be prepared just in case if you live in South Florida or PR.

Besos Bobbi