Chantal 11 PM Monday Night. Stronger with 50 MPH Winds WNW at 26 MPH Forward Speed...

5 PM

11 PM

Chantal Stronger still moving at 26 mph forward speed.

Cone has not changed much, the timing slowed a bit at the end points.

Points from NHC Discussion:

" AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER.  THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS."

And... Chantal is forecast to remain a named storm...though she should weaken after being affected by land 

as she passes over Hispanoila. 

"FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 12.4N  56.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 13.7N  59.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 15.3N  63.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 17.1N  67.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 19.0N  71.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 22.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 25.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH"

Chantal on Close Up:



Nothing really new and we are waiting for the models to come in this evening and re-evaluate the situation. The 5AM discussion should have more information.  Please read my discussion in the previous post as nothing much has changed with the official forecast.

There is a trough... there is a high... there is a passage way north and at some point one of them blinks and that will make all the difference.

Oh...and it's worth noting that Miami and Daytona and Ft Myers have the same wind obs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/090256.shtml?

Sweet Tropical Dreams..
BobbiStorm.

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