Where will Hurricane Sandy's 4th Landfall Be? It's all a matter of degrees.....

Hurricane Sandy has made a 3rd Landfall at Cat Island in the Bahamas. 

That's the third landfall she has made... now we look north and try and see where #4 will be...

My concern on this forecast is that very rarely does the center of the Cone on the 5th Day be the spot where the storm makes Landfall. Things are fluid depending on how strong the storm is and how it responds to steering currents and how the steering currents develop. In this region especially, it's not a slam dunk as if a Cape Verde Storm was coming into Miami from the ESE headed WNW around a blocking large Bermuda High.  Late October storms have lots of subtleties and factors that are fluid.

Look at this model, the slightest variation closer to land there... the turn comes earlier and move that weather further inland..



Also, the set up they have going now has never happened in recorded history if you believe the many weather people on TV it makes you go "hmmmmnnn" and wonder if the end game will be different than the current five day. A result on the real fifth day more in line with other historic storms. Unless you are a conspiracy theorist screaming HAARP or some government conspiracy or screaming "Global Warming" (both tend to be a little extreme...) it makes you wonder if this track will play out.

Just being honest. Any time something is that unusual a track.. I think it's likely the track might change and even just a little change with a storm like this will make a massive difference. Look at that cone up close... if the storm turns back towards the coast a drop earlier or later it is the same angle of the coast itself which bends back to the West after the Outer Banks.. much the same way the Hurricane is expected to curve back to the left at some point within that cone.

It would be more common that the storm goes out to sea.. or it turns faster and comes in around the Carolinas. Ever notice how few hurricanes make landfall at say Norfolk vs Wilmington? There's a reason. Sort of the same reasons Jacksonville gets hit less than Charleston or Miami. There is a point when the fronts come down they get grabbed or they go out to sea. OR...you get a coast that cuts across the Outer Banks and slams into the Mid Atlantic phasing with a cold front and creating more of a flooding situation rather than this set up. Or...they curve just enough and clip Montauk and race past Cape Cod on their way to the Canadian Maratimes.

Why is this storm doing something different? And, will that change between now and then?

That is my concern here.

Living in Miami I have seen more storms hit Miami dead on in the 4th and 5th day of a Cone and the storm makes landfall in NW Florida, New Orleans or misses Florida to the East.

A  3 Day Cone is a lock.. more or less. A 5 day has a lot of give in the long range part. That is why the end of the 5 day Cone is WIDE and encompasses a larger area.

Another problem I have with this storm is that I can compare the storm's approach to Hurricane Charley except that the orientation of the coastline is to the right not the left.


Let's take this image from the link below.

https://pendletonpanther.wordpress.com/2008/10/08/hurrican-charley/

My question here is not the track or the intensity, it's the small variation in the coastline and numerous inland harbors from Cape Coral and Fort Myers to Tampa Bay. The slightest variation in the forward direction of a storm in that limited region can make a massive difference as to where it makes landfall. The NHC took a lot of hits on Charley as the area where Charley hit was ALWAYS in the Cone or near the edge of the long range cone but........not the area the media expected the storm to go as they were following the dotted line. 

Look at the above picture. IF Charley would come in at say 11AM on a clock dial it could hit Sarasota, Siesta Key or Venice but just the smallest degree different could make it hit Port Charlotte. Marco Island could have gotten slammed vs Sanibel but the slightest variation in degrees... See?

Now look at the coast of North Carolina and to the North.. same thing can happen as well.

This is an image from the book I mentioned earlier and on a story about Hurricane Hazel. The storm came in NNW picked up by a frontal system and raced inland. The approach here say is the same 11AM but had the storm shifted the smallest amount... say 11:30 the storm would have raced up through the Outer Banks and kept going through the sound into Maryland, piling water with it and creating a vastly different disaster.

The slightest shift in the track of Sandy in the slightest variation at the last minute can and will curve the storm suddenly south of the current cone or north of the current cone. But the geography of that region is similar to the West Coast of Florida. 

IF Sandy was to suddenly veer in and slam across the Outer Banks and continue on up into the Hampton Roads and up across Maryland and Delaware or ... hit Ocean City which has a high probability for feeling Sandy up close. 

Or... Cape Map.. the winds and storm surge would still push up along NJ into NYC.

It's great to sell papers and advertising on TV to scream HURRICANE NYC but this far out it can be any of the areas in the 5 Day Cone.

Note when looking at the first column of the total that Savannah has the same chances as many of the city to the North that are being highlighted yet no one is talking about the chances for Charleston or Newport News or Raleigh or Richmond or... Greensboro. Understand that bugs me because, Greensboro is really far inland... yet it still has odds.

For all of the talk... most of these cities can end up getting Hurricane Sandy.. the cities with the higher probabilities.. 50 plus...  

And, the difference would be a bearing of 350 or 355 degrees vs 345 or 352 extrapolated over time as the storm approached with a slight bobble left or right of track IF the front sped up or the ridge began to block to the North. 

So, watch the news... appreciate the historical aspects and possibilities but do not make the mistake the people made with Hurricane Charley and complain that you were at the bottom of the cone or the top and didn't expect to get hit... that's your mistake not the NHC. As Max Mayfield used to say over and over, do not look at the line in the middle of the Cone. In fact, they did away with it but almost every channel or new service puts it on their and the eyes go down the middle of the cone. But, the storm will do what it wants to do and it can make a sudden change of the slightest variation and its the difference of Norfolk or Ocean City or Cape May getting hit vs Sandy Hook and NYC.

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  14(26)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  16(30)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  16(31)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  16(29)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  14(35)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  11(23)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  12(31)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  11(24)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  10(21)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   8(35)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   6(28)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   5(29)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   8(34)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  17(33)   2(35)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   8(23)   3(26)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   3(17)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)

Let me remind you that the Euro STILL brings Hurricane Sandy in at the Del Marva NOT NYC.

Again... let me remind you that can change and most likely will change.

The WV Loop shows that the ULL to her west grabbed her and is still steering her. The NHC mentioned it today, finally...with reference to the toll it takes on her organization etching away at her western side...the same way it did days ago when they didn't mention it but only talked on model discussion. That ULL has been there the whole time... and it's got her in it's grasp.

The front... keep watching it.

It is just as likely that it hooks her in faster and the gets pulled north across most of the coast, scraping the coast just off shore, tearing up beaches and slamming into NJ or NY for a 5th and 6th landfall.

One thing we do know about Hurricane Sandy is she likes to make landfall...

Keep watching... I'll be back later as more information comes in..



Again she is very close to Miami and she has jogged...oh... big surprise or no surprise WEST.. At 8 Pm it's a "jog" at 11 PM it can be a slight change in direction.. just a matter of degrees...

Besos Bobbi

Ps

At 5 PM Hurricane Sandy was going 360 Degrees.. perfectly North.

Now, much like the NAM thought she might...she is going..NNW at 345 degrees.

Look at that map and what I said earlier.. a small change of degrees can change everything on a coastline that has a slight variation of degrees but a different city becomes ground zero for landfall.

These storms may not do this much, but suddenly Hurricane Sandy is going to turn into a Back Door Hurricane and Noreasters do that all the time.. don't they?

LOCATION...24.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Posting a good link with info from Hurricane Track on possible effects on NC and remember if the track pulls to the south or west or left...whatever they like to call it... this can become a bigger problem for NC and VA as the wind probs above reflect... Raleigh, Greensboro, Richmond... hmmmnn

http://hurricanetrack.com/2012/10/25/carolinas-get-ready-for-wind-and-rain-as-sandy-turns-your-way/

"As Sandy passes North Carolina to the east, the wind will shift to the north and drive the Pamlico Sound southward. This places a good deal of Downeast North Carolina under the threat of storm surge flooding. People who live in the area know the risks already as they have dealt with this type of event many times in recent years. However, Sandy’s wind field will be so large that the duration of these near-storm force winds (50 mph or higher) mean that with each high tide, water levels will increase. Please consult your local NWS site, weather.gov, input your ZIP Code, and read any/all local warnings and statements. "