Hurricane Sandy at 11 PM Wed Nite
I've always been honest here with what I believe, and I am not happy with the 11 PM Discussion.
I'll highlight my concerns in dark red... as I usually do.. please read and try to follow the complicated but easy to piece together discussion ...
"HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012
CUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB...
AND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
ESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...ARE
AT OR ABOVE 100 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. FROM 48-96 HR...A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART
DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THE
NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. WHEN
THE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TO
STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND
FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR. THE FORECAST WILL
STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH
THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE."
If this loop this loop you will see that the MAIN steering current tonight for Hurricane Sandy is the ULL to her NW mentioned in the discussion above. It has reached down, under ..around and picked up Hurricane Sandy and lifted her as one skater lifts another skater up into the air.
They seem in a big rush to write her off as extratropical. She has not even crossed Cuba and they constantly give a time schedule for how her winds will expand, etc.. etc.
It's just a strange discussion and discounts the current intensification and low barometric pressure.
It can also be seen here in the old but great Unisys WV Loop.
Look at the Yucatan and Western Cuba and you see the ULL digging, spinning and simultaneously Hurricane Sandy gets lifted up towards the north.
She then gets handed off to the next system waiting to grab her.. like one of those old fashioned square dances.
Then she gets passed off.. possibly...to the next system that lifts her and hooks her back towards the coast ... somewhere... depending on which model is right.
My problem is many fold...
For one... the NHC totally discounted the Rapid Intensification that went on all night with Sandy.
They wax poetic on the next event rather than what is currently going on. It's all a matter of degrees here and the slightest shift over night can affect the actual track of Sandy tomorrow as well as the perception of it's power to affect the Miami-FLL-WPB area. It is in ways dishonest. Barometric Pressures dropped significantly. The storm looks incredible on satellite imagery. She made it across Jamaica without barely a burp... and she is not expected to weaken at all while crossing Cuba. And, it seems to me she is moving faster than expected.. at this rate she may emerge off the NE Coast of Cuba by daybreak... .. if that ULL grabs her faster and is stronger than expected she could be slung back towards South Florida making her closer than the cone currently shows her to be.
The GFS and the EURO have not come any closer to a resolution. Let's put it this way, they are still UNDECIDED how they will be voting in TWO days... makes them look worse than those Boca undecided voters.......
The NHC has basically made their track a giant Etch-A-Sketch along the coast... also hard to buy. Too many forces there to try and grab her for it to be that odd a track. If they are right...good.
The ULL is strengthening tonight.. not weakening. That bothers me.
The local weather mets up here are very skeptical of the new track. Greg Fishel out right said he would put no stock in the "new" cone from the NHC at 11 and is waiting for the "more sophisticated models that come out later" and he is right.
He and others pointed out IF Hurricane Sandy was to hit the Atlantic Coast of the US it would be a Billion Dollar Disaster. That is not hype, that is honesty.
The NWS has ordered ALL NWS offices to send up FOUR balloons a day rather than the one balloon many send up to better get a sense of winds along the coast. Where is the Gulfstream Jet I wonder.
It just seems like we are buying time, hoping the storm does what the NHC wants it to do and waiting to see if it can maintain it's intensification over night and I can't say why they threw out barometric pressures that would show Sandy is much stronger than the 11 PM advisory says it is...
Hard to say.. still has to cross Cuba.
Going to sleep. I'll be back in the morning early with more information.
Thanks for your patience, input and for reading my blog..
I'm honest. I love weather. I like to trust the official sources, but they have many rules they must go by and other private weather companies do not have to follow those rules. They have one rule, the basic rule of free enterprise. If they get it right............people keep paying them money. It's that simple.
And, I like to temper their thoughts, the thoughts of meteorologists I am friends with as well the official sources at the NHC. A lot of great meteorologists online as well... in the long run you follow the people you trust.. from experience.
Thanks for reading.
Bottom line.. pay attention and think on what you might do if Sandy affects your area. Hopefully, with prayer and luck and good steering currents Sandy will go out to sea and everyone will complain this was the most over hyped storm since the last over hyped storm.
But ..what if.. she does hook back and make landfall somewhere?
Sweet Tropical Dreams,