Tropical Storm Sandy Dances the Tango

The graphic above is the track on the Navy Site aka NRL that mirrors the NHC site, however goes a bit wider as it has it's ships to protect and the Navy has ships everywhere. It's a good graphic to rely on, the middle circles being closer to the NHC cone.

Sandy is still a weak tropical storm forecast to become a hurricane by ALL models in about 36 hours give or take a six hour period. Intensity forecast to be plain and simple is a bitch. It's the hardest thing to get right. Timing is everything and can throw off an intensity forecast drastically. A directional forecast is pretty set in stone. IE.. Sandy isn't going to Galveston, this is an easy call short term and a much harder call long term.

Note the map above with the various "reliable" models. In the short term the models are basically take Sandy north towards Cuba, crossing Cuba and into the Bahamas. At the end of where their darker color stops...a thin line goes on to either terrorize the Mid-Atlantic, NY, NE, Cape Cod or off towards Europe. Those thin lines are the extrapolation from the models on a very long term basis for what they think Sandy might do and I highlight the world might.  Might as in "could" but not "should" or "most likely" but a "definite possibility exists" . . . 

The . . . is really in this case for the unknown, but a what if scenario that many forecasters have latched on to that show Sandy breaking away from it's Atlantic track and curving back towards land, towards populated cities that rarely deal with this type of storm and are used to watching them hit the Outer Banks and shoot off as if deflected by a force field away from the US and out to sea. Usually, this "out to sea" scenario is the only real reliable one. In a year like this one where you have the tango sort of dance going on between tropical storms and dipping cold front's you get an open door for a landfalling storm to hit the US. It's a rare shot, but obviously they have happened many times before take Hazel as in example. However, as much as people love to yell "HAZEL" in a dark, crowded theater in the Carolinas ... Hazel was earlier by two weeks than this particular scenario. Just a voice of reason here. For that matter, meteorologists from the Del Marva to Cape Cod are ALL watching Sandy just in case this is that year when a storm name becomes an Icon and a part of history. Easy to say Sandy will go safely out to sea, but it's too early to tell.

Today in NC it's going to be close to 80 degrees for a high. Forget the fact that the over night low was closer to 45..once the sun comes out it as a HOT sun and for a few hours it feels like summer. It reminds me of Miami in the winter when you go to school with boots, tights, a long skirt and slowly peel them off until you unbutton the skirt to practically a Mini skirt and end up walking home barefoot carrying your boots and sweaters.  Unreliable. A "very strong" cold front is supposed to come through and possibly bring the first frost. Then it warms up fast again.  That back and forth interplay is the tango part of this tropical forecast problem. 

The atmospheric ballet dips and moves and wiggles and the strong cold front attracts the hot, moist tropical storm and then momentarily they embrace and then they either dance away together or the tropical storm escapes and moves away looking for a stronger dance partner and THAT my friend is how the Tropical Tango of tropical meteorology works... as for a directional forecast. Intensity? Oh, intensity and timing are so hard to figure in and not until the tropical storm really turns into a hurricane, starts dancing and moves towards it's low pressure partner do we really know for sure what the end of the dance will be... 

A look at the Water Vapor Loop will show you possibilities like a Gypsy crystal ball.

Loop this loop from the above Water Vapor to this hot tango music and you will see what I mean...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFeAwZslAHY <--- Tango Fire Dancing

WV Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

This is the current Visible Image from the NRL Navy Site at 10:30 PM. My discussion is not what you will read from the NHC which will wax poetic on models and explanations for why she looks weak, but why she will be strong and where she will go in a few days. I go deeper.

Sandy is missing her NW side, it's plain and simple.

On the PLUS side, she is a potentially beautiful storm.

On the negative side, she is swallowing dry air an it's hurting her.

That could be good for cities on the west side of her guidance envelope currently.

Sandy today is not what Sandy will look like 3 days from now...

A young girl does not become a ballerina or tango star in the beginning... 

.... takes days, months, years of practice in the dance and the timing

Hurricanes only live a short time and each six hour period is like a year in their life..

The new 11 AM will be out soon. 

It won't say much more than that they are waiting on data from Hurricane Hunters.

Maybe they will intensify her a bit, she looks much better than last night.

Points to remember though...

1. A stronger storm will act differently than a weaker one.

2. A larger storm will act differently than a smaller one.

3. A slow moving storm vs a fast moving storm will act differently.

Storms are in real time, they are not as choreographed as a ballet or a tango.

Keep watching.

These three tiles from www.spaghettimodels.com show the same thing... a storm generally headed North to NNE and a storm that is almost devoid of energy or banding in the NW corner. 

The NHC at 5AM said this:

BANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
BE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT
SANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM.

SANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

I'll update soon as a compare and contrast after the 11 AM.

Basically they said at 8... there is little chaneg and they are waiting for data from recon. She "appears" to be moving "slowly" northward.

Note at 5 AM cities up the coastline are at 34% chances for having winds from Sandy and that keeps climbing up the coastline as if the wind probs are driving up I95.

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   1(18)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

I'll be back around Noon with more information or when we know more from the Hurricane Hunters.

Besos Bobbi

Ps...enjoy the dance...