Tropical Depression #18 Forms... Going SW Expected to turn North

Tropical Depression 18 has formed, as expected, and is oddly going SW at 5 MPH forward speed.

Now, they may laugh that off, however the SW movement is what is going to give Sandy more energy and buy Sandy more time in the Caribbean and might possibly if this continues pull the models a bit more back to the left. A lot depends on the next cold front moving down towards the Caribbean. It depends on the strength of the front, the timing, the orientation (deep to the South or more to the East) and where and when this happens exactly.

At this point in the season what happens in the tropics depends on what happens in the Pacific and in Canada.

TD 18 is forecast to intensify:


"THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS."

Again, that refers to many things however if you will remember as discussed here there is a very, warm pool of water down in the SW Carib that TD 18/Sandy can and will now tap into before making a move on Jamaica.

Despite it's current forecast movement to the SW it is forecast to turn around and move north.

Meanwhile the Navy Site sill shows West. That most likely will change.. maybe. The Navy watches the waters all across the globe as their ships are everywhere and they are protective of their ships.

Keep watching... we will have move information later today and we are watching.

Either way... Jamaica has a Tropical Storm Watch...so they are waiting and watching too!

As much as I complain about TWC or whatever new name they want to be called by... I have to say that Carl Parker does the Tropical Update better than almost anyone I can think of.. he is a voice of honesty without hype and does WEATHER vs entertainment. Thankfully, they have not yet gotten rid of him.  The idea for a Weather Channel was not to have movies and segments connected to weather stories and entertainment or watching weather girls slide through mud?? for charity ?? but to do Weather 24 Hours a Day.  What next? Movie of the Week: Night of the Twisters??





What next? Movies about HAARP and documentaries on the poles shifting? Oh, wait...they wouldn't do that.. it would really scare off the advertisers. I mean..why bother? Oh...they did make that movie..



Either way Carl Parker is one of the last of the really good mets on air covering the tropics before they move on to their daily coverage of weather related entertainment.  He is one of the reasons I watch still, one of a few reasons, but my local cable company does Weather on the Ones and they show more weather than TWC does...

http://www.weather.com/tv/personalities/Carl-Parker.html

Besos Bobbi