Models, Models & More Models... What do I think?

Rain falling at the NC State Fair. Got to love it when you can go to the Fair and get good weather pics!

I think that if something DOES develop, it will most likely follow an early November pattern and move NE or ENE out of the Caribbean. I find it hard to see the Gulf of Mexico solution, especially with fronts pushing down and across the country with very little lag time between the fronts. We would need one heck of an Indian Summer in late October to have that happen. A system that has not really formed completely could get sucked north into the Eastern Gulf towards a deepening cold front.. but that's a hard scenario to see.

Though in late October and early November.. anything is possible.

Check out the various models showing a system in the Caribbean at the end of a long loop.

The above was the 3 PM loop... it's one image that shows a cyclone of some sort hovering North of Key West... still hard to see but you never know...

A more believable scenario is the one above showing a broader cyclonic area moving NE towards the Atlantic vs Florida.

Another model with a similar scenario.. 

Bottom line is that MANY models show a hurricane or tropical storm forming, some show something in the Eastern Pacific forming as well. 

The temperatures in the Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday have highs in the mid 80s. I would bet between now and then they will lower the highs, but you never know. If so.. it's more and more possible that there will be a window for some development in the Caribbean.

More tomorrow... not waiting up for the new models, going to bed.

Sweet Tropical Dreams..

BobbiStorm