Is TS Patty Playing Possum or About to Bite the Dust?

You never know with this storm. But, she is caught between a rock and a hard place or in this case two strong entities who are squeezing her, stretching her and trying to pull her apart. The only real hope she has is that the frontal boundary that is digging deep into Florida weakens in a day or two and she finds a safe harbor to wait it out, drifting South...SE or SW and then after she catches her breath she comes back to life. The problem with that scenario is the dipping Upper Level Low to her East. More on that ULL later.



One of the reasons I like this very old satellite loop which is black and white and not as filled with pretty colors as others is how easy it is to use on any computer (loads easy) and how easy it is to play with different images.

Here for example is 12 hours ago:

Current image:

Notice #1 Patty is losing that battle... 

Notice #2 the ULL is beginning to ventilate Invest 98 to the South...

Notice #3 there is an ULL to the West of the Invest also enhancing it's convection

Notice #4 Ull 1 and ULL 2 are trying to lift the Invest

Notice #5..the Invest is having a hard time developing...too much going on perhaps

The NRL site has a new chart up for Patty, possibly a sign of the 11 AM advisory though I think the NHC will stick with an update of their last advisory as they have already shifted around much more than they like to do as to sliding cones around.

Their new map shows Patty trying to find a ledge to rest on..will see what the NHC says at 11.

Going over to color for the system with no name that everyone is talking about..

He has two centers in his large convective mass... one closer to Barbados and one closer to Trinidad. Which is the true center or is the convection from the northern one merely displaced to the South?

The planes are going in... so we will have some answers to these questions by about 2 PM this afternoon or by 5 PM when they may or  may not upgrade him to a designated hitter.

And note how close the convection here is to South America... the models continue to drag her north which to me makes much more sense IF Patty stays alive... if Patty wipes and gives up the ghost.. 

I don't see it. I could be wrong, very possibly but something to me is missing with the models.

And, lastly again it's ALL ABOUT LOCATION... that being the true location of the center of this mysterious Raphael wanna be, because once we get a real center we will get real, reliable model output.

Stay tuned.... it's Friday and things often get freaky on Friday :)

Besos Bobbi

Ps... just to remember ... 

Current track of Invest 98: