TD 17 aka Raphael Seems to be Forming..

The Navy site has put up an official track and he is looking better and better on visible imagery.

I'd expect an upgrade of some sort tomorrow...or later today depending on when you are reading this..

The models seem a bit out of whack and consistent only IF Patty doesn't make the trek across Cuba and dies a slow death in the Bahamas. If so... the above track makes sense. I'm still not in love with the models.

As for Patty, the NRL updated their map and showed her doing the Samba all the way to Havana.

11 PM: 

 

How much will this change in the morning I wonder? 

The NHC did some fancy footwork themselves tonight with their explanation why they added forecast points and updated their track for Patty. Plausible... well written either way.

"DDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO
THE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS."
Sweet Tropical Dreams... going to go to bed and picture Patty swirling SW in my head...