TS Patty Strengthens ... South Florida in 5 Day Cone

How fast things change............. Miami has a 34% Chance of dealing with Patty sooner rather than later...

              FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
  
 MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
  
 KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
  
 NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
  
 ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   X(14)
  
 GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)
  
 SAN SALVADOR   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
  
 CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

So, much for the 5 PM tag on their advisory saying how she is expected to weaken...

I'm not talking about a strong hurricane... I'm talking about a stubborn, persistent system that has battled strong odds and was written off before she formed twice...

Note how different this is from the 5 PM just six hours earlier... 

This is what my kids would call a total "FAIL" ... six hours ago she wasn't making it out of the Bahamas, now the cone covers most of Cuba.

My problem with the models that I have looked at all night... while watching the VP Debate is that... they don't make sense. Well, they do if you look just at Patty, but when you look at 98 they get sketchy. They show a weak storm, barely formed and then suddenly it explodes (in comparison) and then takes off fast to Patty's stomping ground where it thrives, explodes and zooms off towards the NE as if the models are playing old reruns of Leslie. If that area in the Atlantic is so hostile...why would 98 thrive when Patty dies? And, it's just as easy to see that Patty is getting far enough south to slam into Cuba. Also, why the ramp up of forward motion for Patty and how does Raphael get together suddenly when she is beginning to hit an awkward area of geography for her to intensify?

Very confusing.

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012101118&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I can see two storms doing a Fujiwara and that happened in 1926... but they need to get closer and that's down the line. Something just doesn't seem quite right there... some missing piece of info. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

As I have been saying all night to a few friends... IF Patty gets down into the Caribbean.. south of Cuba, as crazy as the models seem to be...she can hook north back up towards Florida the next time a front comes down to flirt with Florida again. Go figure. Never write off a storm before she forms when she is this close to land and it's this late in the season when things get funky.

As for Invest 98... he is still consolidating and taking his time...

Keep watching... I know I'll be.

My biggest problem here is not track as much as timing... something doesn't make sense.

Gonna sleep on it... and smile in my sleep...

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. BobbiStorm

Ps... check out those odds up there one more time...and look at the wind forecast below: