Orange Juice, 30% More Pulp & Big Bird VS Sebastian
Yup, that's where we are this morning. As I predicted last night...forecasted if you will... we only have one circle left standing in the Tropical Atlantic. The system currently approaching South America is up to 30% chances of development and has an orange circle. Considering all the NHC does these days is consider the models... it should be bumped up to 40% later today. The NHC does an incredible job of forecasting, don't get me wrong, but they are overly reliant on the models these days and when the models are working good then they are on Easy Street and on the money.
The models have been busy over night and they do not like the circle previously in the Bahamas that has been forecast to get pulled apart by the frontal boundary that is in it's vicinity. My problem here is that rather than losing it's identity as forecast, it seems to be hanging in there. Sometimes, systems like that drift south, root themselves a bit and when the front dissipates which is an easy call in early October ...it comes back to life fast. Time will tell on that one... so keep watching both areas... and remember the models differed on a resolution to a long term path...some kept it going west against all odds and it is possible those models saw something. With regard to Invest 98 and the tracks above... wow, that's a hard call. Either it stays weak, goes west..skims the coast of South America (like several other storms so far this season) or it gets pulled north towards the same area that supposedly killed off the Invest that was in the Bahamas.
My problems are that IF a system stays south and bears West... it will most likely pull north more than other systems did earlier this year. Note the green dotted line above aiming for the Dominican Republic. There are too many fronts moving across the country to think that they would not affect any developing tropical storm.
IF you look at the moisture feed, you'll see a nice swirl taking place with the "dead" Invest and a smaller roll beginning down near South America.
Last night the Twitter Feeds were ablaze with long term GFS models shouting on possible development of a storm SW of South Florida... though more likely headed towards Bermuda (where have we seen this scenario before this season...) and that's when they went hog crazy with Invest 98 and dropped the old Invest like a hot potato.
The funny part here is that while I sip my Nespresso...one of the last Naora capsules I have... I decided to check my Twitter feed from this morning. Okay, I didn't check since last night at 1:40 AM when the NHC put out their 2 AM Discussion.... and what do I see? Bastardi agrees with me... the first Tweet I see is his staring back and me asking the same question I have been thinking as I look at the SATELLITES this morning rather than the models. I'm not ready for the models... it's early still and I need a hot shower and more than Nespresso to deal with the multiple models. I just peaked at SpaghettiModels.com quickly before writing this blog as I knew what was going on from reading email.
So, look at what Twitter has to say as well...
Baffled by NHC eliminating hatching of area east of the Bahamas. Looks better organized this morning. Should drift southwest
Note we are bilingual this morning ;)
Ouragans.com
Le NHC relève à 30% la probabilité que 98L devienne un cyclone au cours des prochaines 48h lors de son déplacement...http://fb.me/IdNAcM04
Reading on... Bastardi has been about as busy as Matt Drudge online this morning...though he's talking tropical not singing the Sesame Street Blues asking why Big Bird is the question and NOT Bengazi? Well, easier to save Big Bird I guess than to bring our dead Ambassador back to life...
Joe Bastardi
GFS 06z Catching on to the development of system now near 10 n 50w. MJO swinging into favored phase.System e Bahamas may back sw nxt 5 dys
More on the models discussion online:
Tropical cyclone threat windwards to Puerto Rico Saturday-Tuesday period. Now that models show it, everyone will start talking about it
More than Joe are talking about the models, but I figured since I am watching the Morning Joe on MSNBC and sipping Nespresso my drug of choice this morning is most definitely Joe ;)
Then again, always adored Reed since we used to speak back in the old days... note to son in Iowa... Eastern Iowa.... well why would I send a note here to the son who does weather? I need a shower obviously...
Reed Timmer
Forecast hodograph for eastern Iowa 1 pm CDT. If this doesn't scream strong tornadoes than once again, I'm Bob Dolepic.twitter.com/k2X42nGX
This is where I fell asleep last night, btw... smiling if I may say so..
Ryan Maue
GFS 7-day forecast has a weak low pressure well east of Bahamas at 25°N 65°W ... 1002 mb, maybe Trop Depressionpic.twitter.com/u1Tw1L7b
Why is Fox playing "Jesse's Girl" ??? I need a shower... yeah I switched the channel. I do love the Morning Joe, but since the first Presidential debate it has sounded like my Aunt trying to convince my cousin's teachers in High School to give him a break and that he has a lot of potential. Some well meaning mother trying to explain why some kid had attitude and it was just a bad day. Mind you I ADORE my cousin, my pretend brother, my partner in early crime, but I felt so awkward sitting there watching her beg the principal for one last chance... having Deja Vu this morning on the Morning Joe. And, I find FOX in the morning annoying and I HATE TWC in the morning so ...gonna take a shower and hope this resolves itself sooner rather than later.
Bottom Bobbi Line... I'm going to look for red country boots this morning :) and red high heels and possibly a good clutch bag and a new Winter Coat... before figuring out when I am bailing on Winter and going home to South Florida... and not before a trip to Myrtle Beach..
Bottom Line:
The next 12 hours will tell the tale for Invest 98... it either wraps and pulls together or it takes it's time and the models flip flop and sing songs on the MJO and Water Temps in the Atlantic are HOT as Michael Watkins said to me the other day... so true, very ripe for a threat to blow up fast and furious IF something will just spin.
Note, this IS possible IF the Invest gets further West or something starts to brew down there...
We love to talk... we love to watch...we love to chase and take pictures and so true never stop chasing, but this morning I am looking for good winter chasing boots, because I expect to be up here quite a bit and I expect it to be a cold, damp winter round these parts as in snow.. snow...SNOW.. and boy would i LOVE to see an Ice Storm ;)
Who is reading this ...this morning I wonder... a shout out to my daughter if she is as the headline was for her.
Taking a shower... coffee is good, water is better... and I do my best thinking in the shower.
Need this, want this...
And, just one last thing to say on Big Bird. I never liked Big Bird. Okay, you heard it from me first. Well, I am being honest. When I was younger... he was SCARY. I never liked yellow (sue me Peter, sue me) and he looked like... haha one BIG YELLOW SCARY Drag Queen version of the old UM Ibis Mascot which scared the living daylights out of me once during the Jr. Orange Bowl Parade. I mean really... there I am walking in my cute little purple velvet baton twiller bathing suit thing with the bright pink bow on my tush that had rhinestones on it ...honest... why we did this back then I don't know but we did. And, I'm waiting to march with my baton and this 9 foot Orange and White Bird Monster with a BIG BEAK leans down to smile and do a funny dance. I thought it was scary as hell then and when I saw Big Bird I thought the same thing then. That and my younger brothers watched it incessantly, annoyingly, obnoxiously and for my other son who I know doesn't read this.. I never liked Fraggle Rock much either... good messages (if my ex-husband reads this... sorry but they were sort of nerdy looking come on...........)
You be the judge?
Bird Bird:
UM IBIS MASCOT:
Would you want this coming at you while you are trying to twirl a baton??
And, may I say Sebastian is WAY COOLER than Big Bird...
Sorry Peter, I am not a "Yellow Person" ....
Besos Bobbi
Ps...keep watching the satellites and let's see what the next set of models say... I think that area by the Bahamas is hanging in there nicely and am turning off ALL News Channels and putting on an old CD from Steven and taking a shower...
Maybe my eyes deceive me and I had too much caffeine, but that area in the Bahamas seems to be going South and separating from the Frontal boundary that is dying out and may I add ...even it's presence as a disturbance could be a player with regard to Invest 98...
Catch me on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:09 AM
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