Tropical STORM Patty forms in the Bahamas... from TD 16

Against all odds... and with very little model support and a lack of respect within the tropical community... Tropical Storm Patty formed today while many looked south wondering what Invest 98 might do...

The track from the NRL:

As for the NHC... they have issued their first advisory with a "BUT" it won't last long lingo...

"BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED..."

The discussion is even better...actually an excellent write up by one of their best forecasters. I'm highlighting the "maybe" words in red.

THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. 
FIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  SECOND...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF
THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER. 
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
BY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A
TROUGH.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. 

They refuse still to issue watches as they really believe the front will grab her and the shear will affect her and maybe they are right. As someone who grew up and lived in South Florida most of her life I can easily say.. October is about as flaky as a Goblin who had too much brew on South Beach while on vacation... 

Here's hoping Patty doesn't have a mean sense of humor and go "Boo" to the Bahamas...

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS. 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

song to loop by ;) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICnlyNUt_0o

In a 80s mood today musically so try this tune as it's what's the NHC is hoping that Patty will do.. come undone... 


Note this IS the 5 Day cone as they expect her to not make it past Friday Night..

As for Invest 98, it looks better.... sort of... more round. Getting there slowly which is a problem as it will get further west and some models currently imply it could affect the islands... specifically PR... as it makes a turn towards the NW. I'll discuss the models later this evening, after I get a stronger feel for what this next system may or may not do...  

For those who had their tropical hearts set on her being Patty, she's a heart breaker and she could, might become Raphael... ah my heart goes pitter patter... love that name. Okay, it's my brother's Hebrew name lol. But, sounds more like some dark, sweet Spanish singer who moved to South Beach from Catalonia... 

(heartbreaker music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy-QmgdUVTI)

Some models hint at a pull to the right later down the road... for now though he's 50% still.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em0QQAhpxKg <--stunningly beautiful visual music video..

BobbiStorm

Ps...not that I am keeping track or anything but... I was right... she didn't die or get grabbed by the trough and she will go down with a name for the 2012 season. Not sure what is next for her ...but my advice is to enjoy her stay in the tropics on the maps and dance to the  music ...