Reality TV in the Tropics... 20/40 Chances ... Waiting on a Red Circle

Don't let your eyes deceive you... the area that looks round and healthy has the 20% chance of development and the big, broad, messy area with a slowly developing center has the 40% chance of forming.

Yup... Welcome to the 2012 Reality TV Show Dancing with the Invests.....

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Another View:

I'd say what are they smoking.... but I know what they are smoking...

They are smoking our drug of choice... "the Models"

Now...that area in the Bahamas is actually Invest 98 and the small, itsy, bitsy green circle by the Yucatan is Invest 97... really... it's a Soap Opera of sorts...

1.... If you believe that 98 forms... you also believe that 97 goes west as a barely defined system.

2... It's the Canadian Model... not very reliable...or so they say... whoever "they" is..

The GFS...the Queen of the Models shows 98 forming very slowly and 97 biting the dust.. 

Loop it and see.... oh and it aka Patty goes out to sea....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012101018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Better yet... Bastardi goes Brazilian & turns Patty into a Bombshell in the Carib... hmmmn

Going over to www.spaghettimodels.com to look at the models... 

Unless 97 survives and goes West... they all go out to sea

unless something changes and

it probably will

Let's keep watching a little longer... 

IF... 97 still looks like she does tonight...tomorrow morning... 

they will have to deal with it..

then again........perhaps Invest 98 will do crazy, kinky things

and suddenly... WHAM... develop and do her NW, NNW two step dance

and if so...she will probably be wearing red cowboy boots ;)

Keep watching...things are heating up in the tropics...

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

BobbiStorm

Ps... 20 + 40 = 60 

so....

in Reality... we have a 60% chance of something forming

;)

Either way....the Windward Islands are going to be getting tropical weather from Invest 98...and it might be very gusty weather IF the models are right...