Tropical Depression Sweet Sixteen ;) aka Invest 97 with low chances....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x19vy_9aFc <--- music to watch the loop by...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea <--- WV Loop

Wow.... I waited all morning to post....waiting for the reality to shine through and it did... and it's calls Tropical Depression 16... and I feel a real sense of victory on this and it's sweet. I've been saying this area had more of a chance of developing for days now... check my posts and my tweets. It wasn't a matter of "wishcasting" as much as dealing with reality and throwing out models that were missing it's formation. And, ignoring and putting on the back burner the area also known as Invest 98 down near South America that despite being loved by the models has not yet developed. I believed in this system and the set up that that the front would infuse some life into it, some spin and then leave it behind like the wallflower that would go on to become Prom Queen. It's name may or may not be Patty...depending on how well it functions on it's own down there in the Bahamas... very close to South Florida. Note, none of the models take this system to Florida, but hard to rely on models that are what we used to call in school looking mishkabobble and messy!




The models TRULY are Spaghetti Models on this one as they break traditional or not so traditional. The truth is this October is really more like the first week in November and it's pretty darn traditional for a tropical system to go south, southwest, east again... every which way it can to survive. And TD 16 has a thirt for survival it seems.

Wow I'm pumped :)



Official track.... guessing they don't believe she will stay around longer than a few days...  Then again, they didn't think she's form did they?

Play the Jaws music again...

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION.

But, it's not about how long it may or may not survive. It's not about how strong it will get. Got to tell you it's not always about the models, as models can be wrong... it's about there IS a Tropical System on the map that has a "partially exposed" circulation and looks as good as a few of the insipid systems earlier in the year that the NHC jumped on and named before they barely looked like a depression.

It's about being honest. It's about having one set of parameters for naming these systems and I'd like the NHC discussion to be more scientific and less editorializing... but that's just me. I feel like there's been a change over the last few years there away from the hard core way of doing things by the books towards a cowboy like mentality and a thirst for validation of their worth. This is a subject that should not need to be validated, they do amazing work and protect us with their advisories and information and we should be funding them with more money.  Take for instance flights... they sent planes into some systems yet when they could have sent planes into others that were closer (outside of radar range) they waited....   there has been an inconsistency there this year especially and more and more as it's beginning to feel more and more like the NWS/NHC vs the NHC. But, I am digressing and obviously being a party pooper and don't want to break my smile or mood.

Speaking of inconsistencies... they have places with wind probabilities in their OWN advisory, yet they refuse to post watches or warnings. Let's see what they say at 5PM. Hope for their sake 16 falls apart and doesn't become Patty, because there will be a lot of discussion on this if they were wrong. Then again they were wrong on Andrew (no I will not forget that...........) and the weak front did not catch Andrew... hopefully this forecast of strong wind shear pans out... plays out and they are not wrong again. They are not wrong often, but they are often wrong with memorable storms. Could a storm named Patty be memorable? Maybe... anytime we get to the P storm we have a nutty year.

Low chances but still... there are A LOT of boaters out there especially this time of year, vacation homes, businesses in the small islands in the Bahamas and they are putting out a signal that this is nothing but some technicality that is going away super soon.

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  3   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN     

Hmmmmnnnnn

Maybe they just feel they need to do CYA in case it does not die out??

Note, one model takes it in a big loop which would imply it survives the wind shear and then continues on her way. Considering how she has behaved so far, this might not be so far fetched...but a hard task never the less. Check out that GFDL...



There  has been discussion on this online, Ed from www.flhurricane.com writes on the message board there:

"At 11/12Z, Invest 97L was located at 25.5N 72.6W with sustained winds of 30 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. The system is well formed with persistent convection and it has been drifting to the southeast for the past 24 hours. It certainly seems to meet all of the qualifications for a Tropical Depression but for some reason unknown to me, NHC has been reluctant to upgrade the system - perhaps the earlier NHC expectations for rapid frontal capture and movement to the northeast may have influenced their decision to hold off on any upgrade.
ED "

At www.canetalk.com they have downplayed the system all together... not a lot of interest in it...that could change if it sticks with us. I predict if it does things will ramp up fast from "huh" to "oh my goodness"
http://canetalk.com/2012/10/1349971111.shtml

A lot of IFS...

As for Invest 98, it does look better and I say "it" as it could still become Patty depending on how things play out with 16. Seventeen vs Sixteen... hmmmmm watch and enjoy the tropical entertainment this late season burst is bringing us.

Always worth watching the "Juice Loop" ...orange juice obviously...



Invest 98 keeps trying to wrap and rock and roll, but it keeps falling apart... maybe TD 16 will be an inspiration..

Bottom line, the longer it takes to wrap and form the longer it stays west and the turn north could come close in to the Caribbean or IN the Caribbean... something to think on...



Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi... smiling and watching TD 16 and rarely say "I told you so" but I did... never count out persistence... John Hope taught me that!