Invest 97 Still an Invest... No Upgrade Yet... Patty Hangs in there..

The biggest news of the day so far is that the NHC wrote a long Statement explaining why they have not upgraded Invest 98 to Tropical Storm Status. I've included the whole discussion below as it basically says that they WILL upgrade directly to Tropical Storm status ...if and when... the center forms at the surface. Note my highlight in red.

"Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

10/12/2012 01:46 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121744

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN RAINBANDS...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE

CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IF THIS OCCURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE

FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN"

As for Tropical Storm Patty... they flip flopped the cone again to the east this time... Cuba seems safe for now from any tropical trouble.

Seriously this reads like a mystery drama...

"THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY

DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H."

Cone:

Sometimes...........................there just are no words left lol... 

Stay tuned... the planes are on the way ...if they can find a way to downgrade Patty they will...

Besos Bobbi