Rafael Leaving the Virgin Islands Behind, Northbound and Coming Together

Tropical Storm Rafael this morning is leaving the Virgin Islands behind and moving NNW out of the Caribbean into open waters. He's the only game in town this morning and probably for the next few days. Though he is only packing 50 mph winds this beautiful Sunday morning, he is forecast to ramp up to Hurricane Strength over the next two days as he takes the Express Train North to Canadian ports of call.

For the next day or two the only real threat should be to ships at sea and there are a lot of them in the waters where he is currently pulling it together, so I am posting the 1, 2, 3 Mariner's Rule Image from the NHC.

In the Lesser Antilles this was basically another stormy day in the tropics. Not very organized, not very windy, a lot of rain... what you get from a big blob basically.  In the Virgin Islands it ramped up a bit stronger, but mostly caused flooding and mudslides. That happens any time a tropical system moves into that area... nothing out of the ordinary. 

There was a search and rescue going on when a small plane traveling between St. Croix and St. Thomas. Any weather event can cause life and death emergencies, weak storms like this one. http://stthomassource.com/content/news/local-news/2012/10/13/one-rescued-three-missing-when-plane-disappears

The models do differ a bit on their intensity forecast. I'm a little lost on this one as well. I can see why they might strengthen her to a hurricane, but again this is the same area give or take that gave us a very weak Patty and I don't see what has changed so dramatically to make this a better environment for her to intensify. Shear is forecast to decrease, but for how long? And, has she really wrapped? The discussion out of the NHC this morning says that he has... his satellite imagery says otherwise. Radar says she has, yet we are trained not to rely on radar for a true reading of strength and circulation as it can be not reflective of what is really going on...

He still looks a bit lopsided to me. This is the Canadian Satellite Image as they are always watching, especially when Rafael is forecast to probably move towards their part of the world.

Notice that frontal system moving through the US eastbound? That is the system that is creating hazardous weather today with stronger winds than most areas in the Caribbean saw from Rafael who has been mostly a rainmaker so far. The islands could use rain mind you, so that is good not bad.

The discussion out of the NHC is quite eloquent on how the center of circulation is now filling in on the Western side. My question is... if he is just wrapping, why have we been dealing with him as a Tropical Storm vs a Tropical Disturbance? He does look better this morning, but for the last two days he has looked like a big, elongated Tropical Disturbance. In any other year I believe they would have issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement and moved on waiting for a definitive circulation. Just my feeling... or rather I should say in most years. 

Note the wording on how he is becoming better organized, note my red highlighting. 

"SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATES A
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED."

"HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL ELONGATED IN A 

NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/140855.shtml? <-- whole shpiel link..

Late season storms are always strange and each is different in it's own way. But, seriously Lord have mercy, they cannot even give him a compliment without saying "however" which says a lot for Rafael this morning. Tomorrow... he may be a hurricane. Maybe.

There is an area of disturbed weather out in the Atlantic, however the conditions are not all that favorable yet. Possibly as it moves west and gets past negative influences.  Again, I ask... what is that different with this storm other than the last other than size. There is a diving ULL that is helping to give him bursts of energy, yet is keeping him in check. He is forecast to move fast, not slow which would.. could give him a chance to intensify. He looks as if he oozes within a broad circulation rather than moving in any one direction. And, note how the area of convection to the East in the Atlantic is being sheared apart as conditions are somewhat hostile. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

And, that's it for this morning. 

It's a nice day out here. Sunny, not going to the Fair.. not today. Watching the light hit the trees in an ever changing array of patterns and going for a long walk after the Dolphin Game. 

My Daddy was a big Detroit Tigers Fan and I'm a big Red Sox fan so... can't say I am crying for the Yankees, but my heart still belongs to football so you know where I will be this Sunday in October!

Besos Bobbi

Ps...if I refer to him anywhere as a "she" sorry.. I'm old school. I really think they should all be SHES and not HIMS and I liked when we had hurricanes on our side as "OUR STORMS" and I do not like sharing them with the male gender. They are afterall called HURR-i-Canes not HIM-a-Canes... 

Song of the day to loop by.... Sweet Caroline.. of course..   and as for baseball.. maybe next year. 

My closing thought is this... enjoy life, savor the moment and find something you love and enjoy it. And, make sure those you love know they are loved. So, whether is is watching the cars go round and round in Nascar (watched a bit last night) or football or Game 2 or a walk in the woods or along the beach, get out and do it... enjoy it and never be afraid to say I love you or give someone a smile!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html <-- watch him try to wrap . . .   .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWqIKCy6DA0 <-- music to loop by

(who'd have believed I'd come along? and yeah I found that great shirt and going to wear it again soon.. especially as I am in a red mood laterly, smilng... reaching out...touching me, touching you..)