Hurricane Rafael Transitioning to Extratropical .. Watch SW Carib!

Hurricane Rafael is holding onto Hurricane force strength as his winds remain strong, despite a signature on the satellite imagery of a storm beginning to transcend to the next stage...mainly Extratropical.

He is moving NNE at 34 mph forward speed and that might increase later today. He has an odd track in that he looks as if he might head towards Greenland, but then he doubles back and goes East again most likely towards England and Europe beyond.



See how beautiful he looks on satellite imagery. Huge still... but the center is transforming as is his whole moisture package.




Alas there are no track images for the storm that may be forming next week in the Caribbean. Yes, I said "alas" and I mean it..

The question is... will it form or not and secondly if so when?

Note two things in this loop below.
1. How fast the frontal system is moving across the United States.
2. The area of moisture in the SW Caribbean that has persisted since yesterday when I pointed it out.



Keep watching... the models still how formation is possible and the system would move north across Cuba...or near Cuba. The models vary a little, but with frontal systems moving down that fast and that low they will pick up anything in the Caribbean rather quickly. Well, that is unless the steering currents bomb out and go flat. Anything can happen in late October going into November, and usually does happen.  Remember the MJO is moving into that region, and where the MJO goes tropical trouble usually follows.

Great discussion today on Hurricane Track.. worth reading.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

Besos Bobbi

Ps... our next named storm would be named Sandy... get used to the name.