Is Tropical Storm Sandy Forming in the Caribbean? Models Say Yes.

A lot going on currently down in the Caribbean and the end result is most likely going to be a Tropical Storm named Sandy. You got to give it to the Models, because they have been spot on and they saw this coming more than 10 days out. Some models have this tropical formation in their 15 day forecast as I mentioned several times in this blog previously, however rarely do we rely on a 15 day forecast. IF this storm does form, we really should be happy that the models are working so well.

On October 14th, I hinted that this might happen back when Rafael was almost a Hurricane. I saw the models on the 13th... it seemed crazy talking about something so far away and yet the models were stubborn beyond words. So, I mentioned it at the tail end of the blog.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/10/rafael-almost-hurricane.html

I'm just saying when you look at how empty the tropics have been and how strong winter has come on, it's been hard to see more storms forming... yet the models did and it seems to be playing out.

Several friends have pointed out that the SW Carib would be ripe for a rapidly intensifying storm as it was "untapped" and latent energy has been building up.  We can see this in this graphic below that shows how hot the water is and how much potential "heat" there is to sustain a Tropical Storm.

Note the area south of Jamaica is the hottest area, the next hottest area is where the area is currently trying to come together. So, this brings us to my question of the morning. Where will this system come together? Where and when... because "where" and "when" define the better model output...they tell the story better than conjecture. Some systems take time to develop, others find their center and blossom fast like a Pre-Teen Prom Queen. 

So many of the west bound tropical waves in this region were slow moving, never do well ... better later than sooner storms. This storm may be a different storm. Why I say this is because, it already has an upper level circulation and surface pressures are low and conditions aloft favor intensification. Basically...Sandy has nice form... good lines... and those lines just need to be filled in with some good color.  Think of it like an artist's masterpiece. The canvas is set, the outline drawn and now the different color paint is going to be added to create the masterpiece. Everything is ready to go... now we just need this storm to pull together. 

And, where will it go? Oh, that is the big question here... 

Most models take it towards the NE eventually into the Bahamas and then split the difference as to whether it goes out to sea fast or stays closer to the coastline of the US. A stray  model takes it perilously close to Florida ... but that is the exception not the rule. Could it happen? I'll look at that later today.. again a lot depends on where it forms. Does it form south of Jamaica in that area of dark reds and further West or does it form where it is now further East?

There are soooo many models. That's why we call them Spaghetti Models... it's as if someone dropped a pot of cooked spaghetti on the floor and the strands went every which way but in the sink.  Even one model in particular has many layers, something most people don't know and depending on which parameter you choose the GFS and the European can show you different solutions.

The model image up above should change as the models change in real time. The model from Weather Underground can be used to compare and contrast how much they change. Both are current model graphics, but they highlight different tracks and are done differently.

The "Juice Loop" shows moisture, tropical energy... when something is wrapping up and where problems may exist. We can see the system there currently trying hard..

Where are we now?

And, my question is what if that disturbance continues west vs getting sucked up into the frontal boundary? What if it comes together further West and the frontal boundary passes it by?  What if Area #1 merges with Area #2 south of the Yucatan? 

This could get interesting. 

A  friend of mine named Andy sent me some thoughts on Hurricane King of 1950 fame... another October system that tracked north towards Florida and marched across Miami as a small but intense storm. Obviously, a cold front pulled it north... I'm not sure. Possible. But, would be possible more so if it formed to the west of where we are looking currently or got past that frontal boundary and waited for the next one...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_King

So many questions.

As for me... trying to find some color today before I finish with Fall and head back home to Miami. I have various family obligations here in that it seems I am running a Bed and Breakfast these days for the family with baby sitting available on demand. Those obligations run through Thanksgiving it seems. And, last year I missed the change of seasons and got back to NC in time for a mild winter. I want a strong winter and some local color before flying back South.  

A side note... Senator George McGovern died last night it seems. Well, it seems he did I'm just using the "seems" word a bit too much this morning. He was a good man in a different time and a different world. I was more liberal then than I am today. Well, I am pretty liberal on immigration and other issues, strongly conservative on others and middle of the road on yet others. I am supporting Romney for the same reasons that I supported McGovern oddly. Things change. McGovern said something about politics that goes well for tropical weather forecasting.

That's the first campaign I worked on though I was young and impressionable and stubborn lol and am thinking looking back it was more a flirt fest between me and a quasi boyfriend who maneuvered the school into letting us take off from school to "intern at an election headquarters" and we ended up practically running the place... while missing school... something that was totally normal then for us and we maintained our grades. When McGovern took Miami Dade County we took it as a personal victory...that and well it was one of those things we did back then. I imagine also it was a personal victory for him that he had me to himself, away from other boys who wanted time alone with me. He became a politician and he was always a believer in the ends justifying the means. George McGovern on the other hand was a great historian lost in the world of politics as most politicians were not as honorable as him. It was a different time and a different world. I do remember it fondly though. 

 Politics is an act of faith; you have to show some kind of confidence in the intellectual and moral capacity of the public. 

I think you can say that on some levels, the first part about watching and relying on the models. It is an act of faith. Like much in life... whether we are talking weather, football, politics or religion. At some point things start with an act of faith.... 

SW Caribbean in late October... history shows storms form there often. The models have been good. Makes sense.

Reminds me a a song... it's about faith, it's about trust...and I wonder how we will remember Sandy... if Sandy forms... 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=984xuypRE2Q

We love who we love for our own reasons. We enjoy weather or sports or both for our own reasons. We vote for whoever we believe in...for our own reasons. Always be true to yourself... to what you believe but I ask you are as kind and good a man as McGovern was ... rather than finger waving, yelling, pointing, screaming at people because they do not agree with you. You never know what you will believe down the road .... travel it well and always remember to enjoy the music.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I'll be back later today...