"Sandy" could use some "color" on the loops...

There's a 70% Chance of Tropical Formation, yet "Sandy" is still hiding down in the Caribbean in the mess of convection that has been down there for the last few days. The recon was cancelled and put off for a further time when there is more to investigate.

By my math there is a 110% chance that something will develop soon. 99L in the Carib has a 70% chance, the area in the Atlantic Ocean to the WNW of it has a 40% chance.

70 + 40 = 110!

I know it's not the way they mean for it to be done, but it seems to work often.

Meanwhile, despite excellent conditions for development...so far it has yet to develop.

The models meanwhile are developing scenarios faster than they can be studied. Now the models come closer to Florida and some hug the coast and then take off for the Atlantic. Other models strangely aim Sandy at the Del Marva Peninsular. A new set of models will run tonight, let's see what they show tomorrow.

My bigger concern is that while they models are developing new scenarios "Sandy" is moving further west, getting closer to Jamaica and the hotter pool of water which would, could sustain a stronger storm. And, the further west "Sandy" goes it's only logical that the models will inch West.

Then again logic is not often to be relied upon when systems are in this region in late October and remember, this year's late October is more like November.

I went looking for Fall Color today and ended up at Martinsville Race Track... "Sandy" could use more color for us to take it seriously.

And, no the color currently in the Bahamas is where Sandy is supposed to go... not Sandy.

Current official track from the Navy Site: 

(West)

Older model... oops

Current Models:

Note the extrapolation of the current tracks and you can see why this is so important to get right.

Then again, it's also important to have a viable storm not just a "fantasy storm" or a "concept" of a storm.

The NHC is going with 70% which is big for them and as 99 L gets closer to the really hot pool of water near Jamaica Sandy should show up as predicted.

Keep watching...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Ps... Ryan Mauve put this out on Twitter... a compilation of the models. I'm thinking of using it as a background. Looks like Modern Art... the point being ALL the models get Sandy up into the Bahamas near Florida...some closer than others. But...they are just models.