Sandy Forecast to be a Hurricane, but weak tonight..

The messy area down in the Caribbean that has barely come together is forecast to become a strong hurricane making it's way across Cuba into the Bahamas not far from South Florida.

The image above is the "rain map" forecast and it shows South Florida and the Florida Keys well within the forecast for heavy rain from Tropical Storm Sandy that is forecast to be a Hurricane at that time.

Track:

The problem is that some models.. like the NAM show a strong hurricane close to land. 

That's fine if Hurricane Sandy is going NE out to sea.. but much can change between now and then ..

And, currently Sandy is looking pretty weak for a storm that is sitting over warm water

and I do mean sitting... as it is not moving much.

And, I had thought Sandy would look better tonight.

Going to the Water Vapor Loop we may see why as the WV Loop sees another view.
I'd say that there is more shear that expected affecting Sandy tonight.



Look at the dry air moving south into the Caribbean south of Cuba in the above loop.

A good discussion from the NHC on model differences, however it doesn't mention why Sandy looks worse, though to be fair Sandy looked better earlier when this discussion was written. Sandy needs to be more consistent in strengthening and the longer it sits...the bigger the problem down the road possibly.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/230256.shtml

As for TD 17 he is out there spinning a bit better oddly than Tropical Storm Sandy, though no where near as organized in theory.

This is like one of those post debate discussions. Who did better?

Economy? Romney
World Affairs? Obama
What is more important? Economics.

Who won the debate?
The audience gets into a fight, ignores the reporter (only in South Florida) and various people tell other various people who none of which by the way seem like they were ever "undecided" to "shut up you cut me off before" and got to tell you... that audience was so South Florida. Vocal, opinionated, asking questions... wanting answers and a bit of road rage there if you ask me. Looked like a good reality TV show to me..

So, what is happening with Tropical Storm Sandy?

Well, tonight Sandy is still trying to finalize forming according to the NHC so I am wondering "why is it a Tropical Storm not a Tropical Depression??" and the models show it will become a formidable Hurricane close to land yet at the moment Sandy looks tired, weak and seems to be hiding in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Long term looks good.
Short term looks weak.

My money is on the NHC that they are right and Sandy will do what they said vs looping around for days... but you never know.

Or as Letterman asked Obama "Isn't borrowing from the Chinese a problem?"
Obama answered, "not in the short term, maybe the long term or mid term but not the short term"

Okay... that's true.

If you lived in the Caribbean tonight... would you worry or not worry?  I'd tell you to pay attention carefully.

If you live in NYC I'd tell you to decide who to vote for, go shopping, work, pay your bills and keep an eye on the weather...

Sandy is forecast to become a Hurricane but tonight she barely looks like a Tropical Storm. Sandy does look like it's got legs and arms and a heart... but it looks weak on the NW side and I believe that's because there is dry air there and some shear.

Note image from the NAVY site...

Note as of tonight there is dry air down in the Caribbean as seen in this loop:

When you want to look upstream this is a good link to loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

If you live in the South Florida area... pay close attention. And, I am wondering why Marco Island has such high odds..or even any odds of feeling wind from this storm.

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
  
 PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
  
 FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
  
 W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
  
 MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
  
 MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
  
 KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
  
 MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
  
 FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
  
 SAN ANDRES     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   6(18)
 GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
  

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm