2 Tropical Storms.. Sandy & Tony

There are 2 Tropical Storms tonight in the Tropical Atlantic. Here's a nice, interesting view of both as well as moisture and energy across the area ... enjoy. Hope you like it as much as I do.

Tropical Storm Sandy at 11Pm Tuesday Nite:

Look at the size of Sandy...  Not her small core down south of Jamaica, but her whole large signature that covers an area from the North Coast of South America to 30 degrees North. She is huge. And, her size is going to be the bigger problem here at the end of the 5 Day forecast, not her strength.

If she follows the current NHC track, her "weather" will cover parts of South Florida even though they will be far as the crow flies from her "center"

ANY variation to the West of this track in the 3 day would bring it much closer to South Florida and I mean the eye, not the weather which will probably affect South Florida negatively even if it's just a messy, nasty day with winds strong enough to bring down some trees, power outages and high surf. Note Miami Beach as had a problem the last few weeks with flooding from minor rains and high tides, I cannot imagine how this will add to the mess on Alton Road. 

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/10/17/rising-water-cause-flood-of-trouble-on-miami-beach/

Further more down the road, beyond the 5 day, many reliable models play with a possible scenario that Sandy hooks back towards the coast of the US and makes a landfall near NY, New England or Maine depending on which model run you look at...   they vary in exact location of a possible landfall, however they do not vary as much on the overall trend. 

Again... look at the size and understand it will get bigger and more organized. There will be high surf and beach erosion from Miami north to possibly Maine, most likely the Carolinas and Northern Florida. 

This image above shows two things. One...the sheer, massive size of Sandy. Secondly Sandy still has a problem on the SW side..to the NW side. I thought they would mention it in the discussion they seem to ignore it oddly.  TWC mentioned it as did local weather tonight at 11 PM. It is very obvious. Again, Sandy looks like a big backward C.

And amazing late season storm to watch spin and evolve.

This is one of many graphics showing possible model tracks. Note that after Sandy goes to the NE many of the models, many of the reliable models swing back to the NW... some go East towards Europe. What will Sandy really do?

On each model run they change.. 

Tomorrow morning I'll look at various local forecasts for cities near the possible path of Sandy such as Miami, Wilmington NC and Wilmington Delaware, NJ/NY and those places to the North that are so used to strong Northeasters.

Much like after Wilma passed in Miami the weather got blessedly cold, so will the weather in the Mid Atlantic. After the frontal passage that is tugging at Sandy's heart the temperature in Raleigh is forecast to dip into the Mid 30s which may mean the first frost in out lying areas.

In Miami after Wilma we were blessed because without electric you like the temperature to be kinder than it can otherwise be in October. After Andrew in August we sweltered without electric. After Wilma we were thankful at least for the cooler temps and the breeze. 

Another possible problem, but I seriously doubt a real one is that Tony the new Tropical Storm on the block that developed from TD 19 could turn back a bit to the West as well...

I wouldn't worry on this just yet.

I'd worry on Tropical Storm Sandy's path that keeps getting wider and bigger as the storm is forecast to grow in size as it moves North. Note the shaded area covers BOTH coasts of Florida... and almost to I95 up the coastline.

And, to be fair... as much as we want to know where it will go in the long term... tonight it is battering Jamaica with strong storms and those rains are spreading out over Cuba. 

Stay tuned...

Sweet Tropical Dreams and may all your dreams me good dreams!

BobbiStorm