Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

HURRICANE SANDY---BAM! Done Deal! HURRICANE... Watches & Warnings Up...

HURRICANE SANDY in all her current glory.. up close and personal!

That is rapid and explosive intensification prior to landfall as Sandy goes over the previously mentioned very hot pool of water just after pulling herself together earlier this morning. Bad timing for Jamaica and Cuba... We though are a bit more worried on her effects in Florida and the East Coast all the way up the coast towards NY and New England. For now.. the watches and warnings are down in the tropics.. if you consider Miami and Boca Raton tropical..I do and I'm a native :)

Understand though Hurricane Sandy is far away we could have coastal effects from Sandy in South Florida by tomorrow...and that will be building with time..


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  76.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  76.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  76.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N  76.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N  76.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.4N  76.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE  80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.3N  76.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...230NE 130SE  90SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.7N  76.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N  70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  76.7W

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop




Look how close it stays to the coast..this is a BIG Hurricane Size Wise... 

Keep watching, it's a rapidly evolving situation... with possible implications for the whole East Coast.

Check out the Wind Probabilities... if you are listed here you have a CHANCE to get wind from Sandy:

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

MARATHON FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)  10(31)   X(31)   X(31)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


Discussion and let's high light the important phrase... "adjusted to the left" 

THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK
FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING
THE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Stay tuned...............I'll be back with more info..for now read up on this:

History does repeat... it can happen. It might not, but it definitely can.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Havana_Hurricane_of_1846

Besos Bobbi







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