HURRICANE SANDY---BAM! Done Deal! HURRICANE... Watches & Warnings Up...
HURRICANE SANDY in all her current glory.. up close and personal!
Understand though Hurricane Sandy is far away we could have coastal effects from Sandy in South Florida by tomorrow...and that will be building with time..
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 76.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 80SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 120SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 76.7W
Look how close it stays to the coast..this is a BIG Hurricane Size Wise...
Keep watching, it's a rapidly evolving situation... with possible implications for the whole East Coast.
Check out the Wind Probabilities... if you are listed here you have a CHANCE to get wind from Sandy:
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 10(31) X(31) X(31) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
Discussion and let's high light the important phrase... "adjusted to the left"
THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK
FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING
THE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Stay tuned...............I'll be back with more info..for now read up on this:
History does repeat... it can happen. It might not, but it definitely can.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Havana_Hurricane_of_1846
Besos Bobbi
posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:33 AM
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