Tropical Storm Sandy - On the Brink of Becoming a HURRICANE. Long Discussion on Where It MAY Go...

Close UP and PERSONAL view of TS Sandy...turning into a Hurricane.

A very strong Tropical Storm Sandy sits down in the Caribbean poised to become a storm that will be remembered as a late season Hurricane that traveled across Jamaica and Cuba. Soon to be Hurricane Sandy may also be remembered as one of those infamous Fall Hurricanes that missed her ticket out to sea and made history somewhere along the Atlantic Coast. And, then again Sandy may just be a flirt blowing kisses to storm chasers along the beaches as they watch high waves and surf and take incredible pictures that will be posted online and on The Weather Channel.

Only time will tell. What time doesn't have to tell is the size of the storm. Look at it up there at the top of this article. Huge, big, nebulous in her way as to her specific path after she trashes the resort beaches and hillside villages of Jamaica. Sipping Blue Mountain Coffee personally and then moving on to a fine Cuban cigar.. taking the best of the Caribbean before moving on to the Straw Markets in Nassau. That track IS a given. It is a believable and reliable track by the NHC as to where Sandy will go in the next 3 days, possibly as far as the 5 day. Then what? I promised last night a long look around the country at their own government forecasts for many cities that may be under the gun and that long look is show below... staring with the National Hurricane Center's 5 Day Cone Map.

Another clip from www.spaghettimodels.com shows us the many models:

"The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.

Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours."

Another View from the NRL/NAVY site:

If you click on the above image you will see small circles within the shaded area.. 

Those circles show where there may be direct effects from Sandy

Note... they touch... barely touch... A1A along the SE Florida Coastline

The incomparable Jimmy Buffett knows a lot about squalls out on the Gulfstream. Jimmy Buffett knows a lot about a lot of things, but alas he is not forecasting for the NHC.

The OFFICIAL line at 8 am on Wednesday is as follows:

LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

Let's look around the region and see what other governmental agencies say about soon to be Hurricane Sandy.

Shows Tropical Storm Conditions Possible on Thursday Night in Key Largo.

NMB aka North Miami Beach also shows Tropical Storm Conditions but for the whole day Thursday.

Palm Beach ???? Guess there IS a lot of Indecision in Boca...

Now if THAT is not confusing I don't know what is... 

Going deeper...into the Discussion and we will go to Melbourne, FL

"BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

THU-FRI NIGHT...THE FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SANDY. CURRENT NHC
FORECAST HAS SANDY AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT EMERGES FROM NE COAST
OF CUBA THU MORNING...CONTINUING A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND REMAINING AROUND 250-300 MILES OFFSHORE OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO LATE WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REMAINING BREEZY TO VERY
WINDY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AND GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
STRONGEST WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPE AREA SOUTHWARD WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM
SANDY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO LATE WEEK AND REMAINING HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST."

What's more confusing is they don't have the Tropical Storm Symbol in their picture forecast...

they might later today... keep watching... 

Hmmmmnnnn... maybe they are not believers or the coast of Florida simply bends a bit there and they feel safer from real tropical storm force winds...or again they may update later today.

EXCELLENT Discussion out of NMB AKA North Myrtle Beach, SC

"TONIGHT...WHAT SHOULD BE HURRICANE SANDY WILL EXIT THE EASTERN END

OF CUBA AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE
STORM WILL STILL BE NEARLY 800 MILES TO OUR SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND SANDY WILL BRING MORE
ATLANTIC LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. WITH AN OVERALL WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND WITH UPPER 50S AT
THE COAST. THE BEACHES COULD HOLD ONTO LOWS IN THE 60S...ESPECIALLY
IF THE ONSHORE WINDS DO NOT DECOUPLE THERE AS THEY SHOULD INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD IN
AMPLITUDE BY WEEKS END AS VERY BROAD TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION AROUND A LARGE VORTEX NEAR HUDSON
BAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE EXACT TIMING OF FEATURES PROGRESSION WILL HINGE A LITTLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY. REGARDLESS THE WEATHER WILL
BE QUIET WITH JUST ABOUT FULL SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
BEACHES WILL BE DEALING WITH INCREASE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS HOWEVER.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SANDY THIS PUTS
THE STORM 450NM SSE OF WILMINGTON. BEING A PHYSICALLY LARGE SYSTEM
THERE MAY ALREADY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS ESP ALONG
THE COAST AND MUCH MORESO OVER MARINE ZONES.  BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT OUTER ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE MAY BE IMPINGING UPON THE
REGION. CIRRUS CLOUDS CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE BUT SOME GUIDANCE LIKE
GFS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND EVEN RAINFALL."

In honesty, I believe that discussion was written out of Wilmington, NC for NMB, SC.

Let's travel up the coast to another Wilmington in Delaware where they are watching Sandy too!
Wilmington Delaware Discussion below from the NWS.

"A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS

SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER."

Hmmnnnn....let's continue on as they have very good discussion in Delaware.

"GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS

WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST AND ALSO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK OF SANDY, BUT SOME GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. STILL, OTHER
MODEL DATA RECURVES SANDY MORE SHARPLY AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE
EAST AND OUT TO SEA. IN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD, WE HAVE MADE
SMALL CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FCST. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
COME TO CLOSER AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE TO THIS
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK."

Okay....note the caution is all the way up the coast. This is not a case of online storm trackers hyping a storm event at a beach near them... or online websites and blogs playing with possible historical worst case scenarios, but the NWS all the way up the East Coast of the US.

Let's go to Sandy Hook New Jersey as karmically if I was Sandy that's where I'd want to go...

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS."

it continues........

"IMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH

THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS THE CLOSEST TO
THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY TAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING HEAVY
RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST CONTINUITY...WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM
HAVE VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK. THE LATTER TWO MODELS TAKE
THE STORM SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WOULD BE
POTENTIAL MARINE IMPACTS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NW FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. NEARLY HALF OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
THOUGH SUPPORT THE RETROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO USE
A CONSERVATIVE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND HAVE MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS SINCE THE 12Z TUE CYCLE.

THE FORECAST SEEMS TO HINGE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW FRI-SAT...AND THEN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES SUN INTO MON. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE AN INCOMING JET MAX/SHORT WAVE OVER
THE TN/OH VALLEY ON SUN...WHICH IS STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF. THIS
FEATURE ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED STEERING
THE LOW IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE
WEAKER...AND THUS ALLOWS THE LOW TO TAKE A RIGHT HAND TURN OUT TO
SEA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SPACING BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THIS
SHORT WAVE IS SMALL IN THE GRAND SCHEME...BUT WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED OR NOT. THIS
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE....BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT FORECAST"

Hmmmnn...let's look again exactly where Sandy Hook, New Jersey is:

That's up near New York City dears... one of the closest beaches to Bernardsville, NJ for example.

So, as promised this was a very detailed look at exactly how worried the National Weather Service MIGHT be regarding a storm that is still far away, south of Jamaica and traditional tracks would easily take her out to sea missing all these above mentioned ports of call. HOWEVER... the NWS thinks it is important enough to remind their viewing public to pay attention and note that it is currently a possibility for a "potentially high impact forecast" and got to tell you ...THAT IS RARE.

And, it's based on many models that keep showing possible solutions like this one below. Compare that with the map above and then you may go..."ohhhhhhhhhhhh"

We may look back and laugh... maybe not.

Stay tuned... I'll be back later today with updated model forecasts, a look around Twitter and the Tropical Sites online as well as my own thoughts on what I think Sandy is most likely to do.

Would be a sick Halloween joke to play a trick on Sandy Hooks by Hurricane Sandy though, wouldn't it?

Besos Bobbi

Ps... many cities reading this up the coast though in the Carolinas will have their first frost on Halloween Jack O Lanterns courtesy of Sandy.