Hurricane Sandy Set to Scare the Whole Eastern Seaboard..
New Cone from the NHC that has been adjusted to the WEST of the previous one and now shows what the Navy Site has been showing.. a pull back to the NW TOWARDS landfall on the Eastern Coast.
When I was a young girl I lived next door to a Hurricane Hunter. You know, the guys that fly around in hurricanes in the big planes with the funny names... He taught me years back to always watch the Wind Probs that the NHC puts out. Then I had a Professor in College who told me, "always watch the wind probs" so ... I have always watched the wind probs. They won't tell you exactly what the storm will do down the line, but they tell you what it may do...where it may go and where it won't go.
This afternoon's wind probabilities look like a lesson in US Geography. They do show that the Outer Banks has a higher probability than most of the other cities which all seem to share a 34% chance of getting Hurricane Sandy.
Highlighting in RED the cities with the higher chances of seeing Sandy up close and personal.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 5(23)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
They STILL have Tampa and the West Coast of Florida in the odds and that's strange or tells me they think it is possible the track may be pulled west AGAIN and that would bring it perilously close to Miami and West Palm Beach...if so.
A look at the Discussion will show what the NHC is thinking other than .. "could Sandy really be the one?" which is what everyone is thinking...
These are the fragments from the Discussion I thought were most important!
"THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SANDY
REGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS."
"THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SANDY
REGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS."
" THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLORIDA."
"GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA."
""WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF
MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL..."
Some incredibly good discussion out there online. On Facebook Larry Cosgrove, a long time friend and really good meteorologist posted this picture and gave reasoning why the Del Marva could get hit or why this landfall is more likely. That's a discussion going on in Real Time so it changes as do the models.
It's a very possible, plausible scenario...
There is a trough of low pressure dipping down towards Tennessee and then it pulls up again. Sandy will be east of South Carolina and the digging trough grabs Sandy and pulls her and her moisture in to make one massive Snow Cane. Another model or school of thought keeps her further off shore and waiting for the next system to grab her... which will it be?
Gregg Fishel is one of the better mets up in North Carolina. He is very cautious, very grounded and very knowledgeable with a wealth of experience. He is taking this set up as a very possible historical hurricane that could and most likely will affect the Atlantic Coast...for now worrying on the Del Marva area with the comment that if things change the Outer Banks can see more of Hurricane Sandy they they had expected previously. (Note, the wind probs for the Outer Banks are higher than the other cities as it juts out wonderfully into the water)
Also remember the water temperatures of the Gulf Stream are still hot and can still support a strong Hurricane even beyond the 28N latitude..
A lot of good info online:
Good blog by Ken Kaye ... a good source of local info in the South Florida area.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/
The ALWAYS conservative Jim Williams at HurricaneCity:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0YOtlPETbc&feature=youtu.be
Keep watching:
Know that at 11PM it's possible the Cone will nail down the final landfall...or the cone will extend north into New England.
The GFS model hits Portland, Maine on one of it's most recent runs... wham right into the harbor by the landmark lighthouse.
What do I think?
More on that later... IF the front is that strong it will grab Sandy sooner rather than later.. if not, it goes north across Long Island ...or into NJ/NY towards Maine. Maybe... hard to say.
The reason why is that the kicker for this set up is still far back and has not shown us the cards that is holding.
It IS digging though..
Stay tuned................
Lastly, Spahetti Models is adding info and links nonstop, it's a wonderful asset when looking for links.
www.flhurricane.com is always great for a Florida Storm or any storm.
www.stormcarib.com is where the storm is at..vs where it is going.
Boston is watching... are you ???
http://weather.boston.cbslocal.com/US/MA/Boston/KBOS.html
Besos Bobbi
Ps.. more later, lots more... if you know anyone living in any of the shaded area below... make sure they take this storm seriously and hope like hell it goes out to sea..which includes.. most of Pennsylvannia.................Vermont, well... you get the idea..
posted by BobbiStorm @ 3:09 PM
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