The Problem With Forecasting Hurricane Sandy .. a Tricky Storm
Hurricane Sandy was a strong Category 2 Storm when I went to bed last night, however the NHC wrote a very conservative discussion that did not correlate with the picture that was emerging.
This morning, they write a very different story.
SANDY MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. CUBAN RADAR DATA AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED
THAT SANDY HAD A WELL-DEFINED 20-24 N MI DIAMETER EYE WHEN IT MADE
LANDFALL.
What annoys me is it was a VERY strong Category 2 storm last night at Midnight, well before it hit Santiago De Cuba.
It wasn't a matter of reading between the lines, it was a matter of strong satellite imagery proof as well as barometric pressure readings confirming it was a strong Cat 2, but at 11 PM the discussion read as if not much had changed. The Updates from the NHC have to be more "in real time" if you ask me. Not every five or ten minutes...obviously... but just like they give position updates at critical times or make "SPECIAL STATEMENTS" they need to be able to not wait another three or six hours to confirm something they already know and something the viewing public knows by watching the same satellite feeds that are available on anyone's phone. Times have changed, they really need to find a way to change with the times.. or modify with the times so that they do not lose credibility.
Just my opinion.
Anyway...this relates to WHY people go to online websites which provide information that is akin to commentary on the storm. Why? Because they can and they get good data written by good informed sources who do not have to follow the tedious government rules that any government employee has to follow.
FLhurricane has always been a source of information vs hype. Look at the image they put up last night which shows very clearly that Hurricane Sandy was not just a Category 1 storm ...despite sticking with the data from the NHC they find a way to present the information in a clear, direct way.
www.flhurricane.com aka Central Florida Hurricane has for years been covering storms with the tag line "Hurricanes Without Hype" as they are committed to a non hype format. Their forum is not as active as it used to be..as many have moved on to Twitter, Tumblr, Pinterest... but their info is top notch an spot on. Anyone with any knowledge of hurricanes can look at that picture they posted last night an know Sandy was a Hurricane trying to attain Cat 3 status not Cat 1.
That is one incredible image, that was NOT a Category 1 Storm. But, the NHC said it was at 11 PM.
After it hit Cuba...a few hours later ...they said it was a Strong Category 2. That it was, but it was a strong Cat 2 at 11 PM. And, if you think I am being critical...you should hear what people are saying who are In the meteorological community in higher places than I am. I'm being kind...
Time to step up and modernize...or people just go elsewhere like Weather Bell or Accuweather.
http://www.weatherbell.com/
Time to understand that it is MUCH easier to find information and satellite imagery on sites such as Spaghetti Models than it is the NHC Home Page. Congratulations to Mike for understanding what the public wants and needs and providing it in an easy to use format that Stephanie Abrams of TWC fame as raved about as one of her favorite sites. It is what it is and it is easy and workable. The NHC's format, though updated a bit, is way too old school and folks...I'm pretty old school myself. Okay, I do pay at Starbucks with my cellphone APP but I also use older sites that work. Whatever works.
Speaking of Old School:
Time to point out what I said last night was "spot on" and exactly what was happening. The dark colored air that traveled down on the left side of the storm through the Gulf of Mexico down towards the Yucatan is part of the ULL I was discussing an it scooped up Hurricane Sandy, helped intensify Sany and lifted her north fast across Cuba. And, it is still lifting her. The official line was that they were unsure how strong or how long it would continue to dig. Any good examination of this loop made it obvious last night it was "still digging" and will for a little while longer, before that front to the NW tries to steer her into the ZIGZAG motion the NHC says she will take. Sort of a zigzag, stair step path towards a possible historical, economically tragic landfall. The price tag on such a landfall in the NE anywhere from the Del Marva to Maine including the Potomac an NYC would be in the BILLIONS and loss of life could be higher than expected as a storm of that magnitude would not be expected. Most people will be expecting it to go out to sea and/or think that the media is over hyping the potential of the storm. And...with all eyes on the election and football over the weekend, despite the hype.. many will be taken by surprise IF and that is a BIG IF...this storm does make landfall in the US rather than going out to sea.
Models:
PS I don't trust storms that are forecast to do loop de loops.... just saying..
Mike's Spaghetti Models Page Above Says it all and is the first place I go every time I hit the computer. Simply click the image you desire and it brings it up 1 2 3.
I'm honored to be include on his page. I've been using his page from the start.. and have seen it evolve.
I trust it, I use it. It works.
I wish the Home Page at the NHC worked as well.
It's also making me want a Windows Phone, but that is another issue we won't discuss here :)
Close UP:
Note that NAM has been consistent for days... would give people in Miami heart flutters...
It's already beyond breezy and crossed over to very Windy and there is high surf.
The GFDL has been consistent to and I was trained to respect consistency in models.
Here's another clip of my go to spot for Miami News
You can watch live..
At 8 AM the center of Hurricane Sandy was located at:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES
Note they mention it is between the Bahamas and Cuba, however they miss mentioning it IS raining and windy in Miami which is far to the left/west of their track forecast. Yes, they said there would be "impacts" but hey did they mention it would cause more flooding in an area that has had a lot of flooding and high winds and oh a lot of ficus trees are going to go boom and topple over in the middle of the night from flooding and high winds? Well? No.. says between Cuba & the Bahamas.
Look at that image above.. it's going to get messier soon..as Sandy is moving FAST at 18mph.
Link from Spaghetti Models:
In today's fast, get it for me faster world... everything is about images.
Whether it's Instagram or Pinterest, choose your passion..
People want an image to remember..
The above image tells me... tells you that Hurricane Sandy's distant bands are ALREADY affecting
the Miami and South Florida Area
REMEMBER ONE THING..
THE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ARE HOT
VERY HOT AND CAN SUPPORT RAPID STRENGTHENING
CAN... NOT WILL...BUT CAN
I will talk more about North Carolina and the Del Marva and NY later.. right now Hurricane Sandy is on the map in South Florida, leaving Cuba and I remember another storm with a different set of steering currents and that was Hurricane Cleo and Hurricane Cleo intensified rapidly over the Florida Straits as she left Cuba.
An image from the old WSR-57 Radar... Cleo over Miami. One of the reasons I do weather is this image... this storm... and others like it. IF Sandy does what Sandy may do she will be the reason many other kids go ga ga crazy over weather and hurricanes. Plain and simple. That's the way the world works. Once bit and you are a Tropical Weather Person forever..
A different storm, a different year, but similar in some ways:
Bottom Line:
What do I think?
I think everyone needs to stay alert and on their game.
Be careful if you live in the Miami area.. Hollywood... Palm Beach.. Lake Worth.... as things can change fast and sometimes it takes the official sources time to swing in line.
Remember Irene... the storm that was suppose to go to Naples and shut Miami down.
Remember Katrina and Wilma.. Katrina Part 1 that slammed Miami badly a lot stronger than anyone expected...the same with Wilma.
And in North Carolina people are worrying on memories of Hazel and Fran as both were not expected to be a big deal so far inland and then they were..
The one thing that is a forever, despite how much more we learn over time, is that Hurricanes will ALWAYS find a way to bring us an October Surprise.
Keep watching... be back later.
Check in on Twitter where I update more frequently..
Besos Bobbi
Ps... Sandy is moving FAST at 18 mph an is getting stronger. How much do I believe in the NHC Cone? I believe it... but................a big but.... I don't turn my back on a Cat 2 Hurricane that wants to be a Major Hurricane and OH.........THAT WAS NOT IN THE NHC FORECAST.... and if you miss the intensity forecast you are usually off on timing as well as a track that will need to be adjusted. So, stay on top of this and pay attention!
Again...no where in their forecast did they forecast this sudden rapid intensification...
And, even staying offshore there will be power outages and damage along the South Florida Coast.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:59 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home