Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Category 2 Hurricane Sally - 100 MPH - Forecast Forward Speed 2 MPH NNE - Looks Stalled To Me But We Will See in the Morning.

1 AM.

Category 2 Hurricane.

Basically stalled...

...officially moving 2 MPH NNE

Leaving old headlines up to see how it evolved.

So much talk on New Orleans.... we are looking at a Florida landfall.

Or Alabama Florida border ..either way.

11 PM

This is the cone close up and too personal maybe.
The warnings keep moving East...
Is it true movement or wobbling.
Wobbling ot stalling.
Stalling or crawling?

Discontinued to the West.
Extended to the East.
All night.

Jim Edds, an old friend, is chasing.
He does awesome work.
Good guy.
He just lost power in Gulf Breeze.
It's a "beach suburb" of Pensacola.

Most of the chasers are in that area below.

At some point Sally will make landfall.
When? How fast she moves when doing so?
Can't say. 
Can say what the NHC says.
But Sally seems to do what Sally wants.
Hurricanes are like that.
It's all scientific but... theres is much we don't know.

The image of this dock a bit under water haunts me.
Because it won't look the same when Sally is gone.
After a day or two days of Hurricane Force Winds.
Waves on top of the water.... even TS winds.
Moving 2 MPH (if at all) 
Will rip that place apart.
The power of water over time....
... creates disasters.
Water can be a blessing or a curse.

With prayers for everyone in the path of Sally.
Stay safe... be careful, follow advice from the NWS!
in North Carolina we know this too well.

Watching TWC... 
...I'll update in the morning.
Recon just found stronger winds.
NHC may up the wind speeds.

Stay safe. Follow advice.
Pray for those in the path.
We need to get better at this.
We know so much..................
.....there is so much more to know.

The rest of the blog is in real time.
(I'll be on Twitter til I fall asleep)

As expected with the barometer dropping.

Sally is back up to 85 MPH

And East of forecast points iside the cone. 

What this image shows is her eye is East of forecast points.

29.5N 88.1W
29.6N 88.0W
29.7N 87.9W

They can say it's going N all they want.
It's not actually moving N at 2 MPH
Above you can see
.1 N .1W (NE)
.1N .1W (NE)
Math may be annoying but it doesn't lie.

Sometimes I track old school.
The purple pencil didn't work well.
But you can see here movement based on cords. 
Why they can't just say NE at 2 MPH.
I don't know. Is what it is.

Sally is mesmerizing. 
Warnings up in Florida.
And moving my way towards the Carolinas.

Back later.... updating in real time.

5 PM 80 MPH moving N at 2 MPH.

Pressure down a bit wind speed could inch up a bit.

Movement is very slow. Remember that. 

Floater image from weathernerds site.
Any variation in direction means FL or Alabama
Steering currents very weak ... 

There's your state borders...
.. may make landfall near Florida's recent earthquake.
Funny but true. 

The pier in Gulf Shores just reopened.
Repairs from a hurricane... 
...and Covid took a bite out of the economy too.
Paul Goodloe is doing any incredible job today.
Would be sad if they lose the pier again...
Wishing I was there, really...

I have friends chasing. Old friends.
Strong, wild ocean out there now.
That's me... being in a hurricane is wild.
The roar of the ocean, the tug of the wind.
The sound... the roar of the wind.
Better to chase a cane than to have it chase you.
To chase a Cane is preferable to having it as a guest.
An unwanted guest in your home.

So much more we need to learn and know about them.
We know the tip of the iceberg. Really.

Oh and that area in the BOC/GOM
Dabuh shared the ICON earlier.
Now the EURO is on board for a storm there.

Definitely could happen.
Time will tell.

Keep watching... 

Watch TWC.. Goodloe is doing an awesome job.
But the sound and visual effects are from Sally.

11 AM 

Track similar... 

Discussion still shows what it should do...
Beautiful presentation here.
Ragged eye.
East sided system.
Tornadoes will be an issue in bands.

Models closer in agreement
Found on Spaghetti Models.

Beginning to show that hard right...
..that Georges did that I showed yesterday.
It will do what Sally did looking back in time.

Keep reading from 9:30 AM
I'll update after the 5 PM advisory

NW at 2 MPH - 85 MPH

A look around the Internet tells us much.
Storm chasers are scattered from Mississippi to Florida.
Louisiana, for now, seems out of it.

The reality is Sally is stalled, drifting more than moving, and trapped by dry air to the North - see the bent of the High where the cold front pushed down and stopped just short of the NC SC line. To it's East, to it's West... it's stuck. There is a reason why it's stuck and it's spinning while it's stuck with it's Northern squalls over land and it's wet wild side leaning across Alabama and Florida while Mississippi is so close it can almost apply for residency. The link to the loop is below by the song I'm leaving for you to think on because every degree matters this close in and when it starts moving how strong will it be? When will we see that eye pop out again? Soon probably but Sally likes to surprise us so remember that. Reading Twitter watching for where my chaser friends are what the various NWS locations are saying, you learn a lot from reading the local forecast discussion.

Jim Williams tweeted this important tweet.
Tornado weather for North Florida.
Whenever they are in the bands of an offshore storm.

Josh aka @iCyclone is a great chaser dude...
In Pascagoula Mississippi, how about that.
A good staging place to wait and see.
The water rises are already happening...
But which way does the center of Sally go.
And where is Sally's eye?
I'm sure it will pop out again soon and wink at us.
Driving chasers crazy wondering where to go.
You have to wait out systems like this...
... maybe a metaphor for life also.

As for the rest of the basin...
...please go to
This blog is mostly about Sally...
...and some talk on Teddy.
But Mike has all the news on all the tropics.

This is where we are at with Sally.
She's not moving much.
Officially 2 MPH NW

Sally is stuck down there in the Deep South.
Stuck without steering currents.
The Cone shows the story.
Again trapped temporarily...

"Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system... day 4 or 5"

Slow motion disaster.
Flooding from rain, incessant rain.
and whatever else it has inside it...
....that we have yet to see.
Very Autumn like.

Discussion is written honestly.
It's not as strong as it was.
It's not as strong as it was forecast to be.
I'll add to that discussion.
We will definitely take 85 MPH vs 105 MPH.
The discussion explains the details.
Why it's 85 MPH not higher currently.
Below is the front dipping down in 4 to 5 days.

The reality is that some storms do not travel a straight path nor do they maintain intensity as they often flare up or what we like to call "pulsing" and then they go flat again and that has been part of the signature of Sally and the other signature has been slow moving rain and flooding. That's been consistent so far and it seems whwere we are going. 

The reality is part of Sally IS over land currently, yet it's not a landfall until the center of the eye is over land and if there is no eye then they make an estimate of landfall and that may not happen for day or so easily as itr's currently crawling Northwest at a barely there 2 miles per hour. Slow motion storms such as this can almost rain themselves out but the mold inside a flooded home or structure can grow before the storm has passed; the mold and flood damage is hard to explain to someone who has never gone through it. I've seen it in Key West and it was extremely hard for people who don't have millions of dollars put aside to use while waiting for insurance to kick in and repairs to begin.

What's interesting is both Sally and our forever yellow X
Are both anchored for now in the Gulf of Mexico.

Teddy the strongest of the trio is forecast to go Major.
When I saw the models the other day...
.... I just stopped and stared in amazement.
The cone shows it following Paulette.

Forecast for Teddy Strength

Nuff said on Teddy for now.
But we will be wowed by his preserntation.
If models are correct.

So leaving you with the image above.
Don't forget that area down in the BOC.
Will it pull North when Sally makes her move?
Time will tell....

Leaving you with this incredible image.
Last time I was down that way.....
... I turned around and looked at the Shrimp Boats.
It was always my lasting impression from there.
He caught that perfectly.
And yes... you learn a lot from the locals.......
...and from history.

The reality is that it will be hard, but not impossible, for westbound waves not to follow the leader in the Atlantic for a while as Teddy is forecast to cut the same path that Paulette did and although for now Invest 98L is moving West but how far will it make it before it begins to turn.  The truth is nothing stays stagnant and it's likely at some point some will miss the turn and cruise into the Caribbean and end up North of South America debating which way to go. As September turns the calendar into October we worry on Caribbean Hurricanes catching cold fronts that will be on the move by then up towards Jamaica, Cuba and the SE coastline will be in play once again from a different direction. This is NOT to say we cannot get hit by a tropical system from the ESE or East or SE but it means my window is open and cool air is filtering in but I"m in North Carolina not South and every degree of latitude matters this time of year. Every new front pushes harder but currently the smoke out West is stuck over Seattle and Sally is stuck and the pattern seems a bit stuck. But then.......something comes along and pushes everything about and rearranges the flow and things change. Change is the one constant in the world.

So stay tuned. I'll update as there is breaking news to update at the top but think long term today while watching the short term forecast of Sally waiting for a ride to be picked up and moved inland. Here's the link to the video I made on Twitter ...from the image at the top.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

And the best song for today is definitely about latitudes because with Sally every degree matters especially when it's moving that slowly and every degree a cold front dips down is important and every degree matters keeping Teddy from doing a visit to Bermuda after reading Paulette's excellent Yelp reviews. Stay tuned.

Further out we have Paulette pulling away.
And in the East Atlantic we have a trio of systems.
Currenty all forecast to stay out at sea.
Time will tell, so we watch and wait to see that happen.


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