Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 27, 2019

UPDATED! Alvin Strengthens in the Pacific to HURRICANE ALVIN.. Where's Barry in the Atlantic? June Not Too Soon For Debates and Candidates Surfing For Attention.

As I mentioned earlier today Alvin has strengthening........
...strengthening faster than NHC expected.

Alvin has been upgraded tonight to Hurricane status.

Compare and contrast with earlier today.

The earlier discussion is shown below.

Note it is said it's hard for models to handle small systems.
Alvin isn't that small... 

I know it's the HWRF ....
We have become so weighted to the EURO.. 
and the upgraded GFS (of course... sarcastically said)

But models did show this intensification was possible.

It was obvious this morning this could happen.
But the NHC drew the line at ain't gonna happen.

We know so much on track forecasting today.
But we still lag behind on intensity forecasting.
Something to remember as we move on in the season.
Use the models but adjust in real time ... what is actually happening in real time.

Hope y'all enjoyed the 2nd Debate.
As for African waves....

These waves are getting higher and higher.
They also aren't fizzling when they hit the water.
What happens when the shear slows down as it's forecast to do?

It's a process.... 
Shear weakens.
Water warms up.
Something to take seriously.
2019 Hurricane Season.

Note.... Alvin wasn't taken so seriously.
Alvin exceeded it's early expectations.
The waves leaving Africa are also exceeding expectations.

PS..... Barbara seems to be forming behind Hurricane Alvin.

* * *

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There's Alvin a 60 MPH Storm currently.
That's hours ahead of forecast by the way.
Small but mighty.
Living out his moment in the Pacific sun.
Look at that Pacific ITCZ coming alive.

Earthnull shows us Alvin clearly

That intense little circle off of Mexico.
Up close you can see Alvin tightly wound up.

NHC describes him below as TINY

Someone at the NHC is getting way too political there.
They sound today like Trump at that debate.
Marco Rubio has TINY HANDS.
Pretty sure they aren't happy.
But in the end Alvin bites the dust.
Or more so drowns in the cold, windy Pacific.
Barbara is the next name up.
Maybe Barbara is like Tulsi and she surfs?
Of course her name would probably be Barbi if so.

Okay I Googled her.
How could I not?
There's no hurricane in the Atlantic.
And not much new I learned otherwise at the debate.

What amazes me here is this...
She could have been a Victoria's Secret model.
And she went into politics.
That's kind of a win for women.
This is NOT a political endorsement.
It's more a confession.
I Googled her.
Hey I've heard Booker and De Blasio bicker before.
Nothing new there.

I said last night I was watching the debate the way you'd watch interesting waves work their way across the Atlantic. You don't expect them to do much in late June and you don't expect people in debates over a year before the election to really shine out bright enough to remember next June but Tulsi definitely made an impression. Note the fact that there are waves fighting their way West without shriveling up the moment they hit the Atlantic Ocean IS interesting and makes me wonder which one of them will try and be a Dark Horse Wave and develop close in as we move deep into July. 

I also watch Alvin because I'm curious to see how the NHC has handled him other than being nasty and making fun or his small size. Note Alvin is noticeable from outer space so maybe his stronger than expected intensity matters. It matters in that they dismissed models that called for quick intensifying and went with the usual candidates for tropical gold and came up playing with gold dust. 

This morning's discussion forecast points above.
Yesterday's forecast points.
Intensity if usually harder to forecast than position.

Let's move on to Barbara.

See my point here?
It's time women know they can be beautiful and......
........go into science or politics.
Note we have never had a woman director at the NHC.
Oh but one did run one of their libraries.

I'm not much a Women's Lib person.
I'm a who is the best candidate person.
I'm a person who looks at everyone.
Everyone has a story.
Every wave leaving Africa has a story.
Only some make it to a named storm.

Catching the NHC attention is not easy.
Top heavy works better than bottom heavy.
Waves that work out and develop good structure..
...vs those that look great on the bottom.
But don't exist on the top are goners.

Good structure.
Good bones.
Even small good bones get a name.
Like Alvin or the much maligned Beryl.
Remember Beryl?
Small hands Beryl?
Okay being silly today.
But why not?
It's hot.
It's getting hotter.
I'm debating July 4th plans.
Let's have some fun because we can.
Nothing big out there.
That brings us back to Beryl.

I believe Cranky called Beryl a Thunderstorm last year.

Beryl was a July 4th kind of storm.

Written off as too small.
Barely there Beryl.
"Not a sign of a busy season" (oops wrong)

Florence was originally written off as a Fish Storm.
Well no not wrong in that Florence swam and swam.
Florence swam all the way to the Carolinas.

Never count out early strong waves.
Never count out early strong candidates.
Never count out a smart beautiful woman!

I believe a woman can be smart, sexy, beautiful and fun.
But SMART is smart.
Just an observation.
Not a political endorsement.
And not saying Barbara will be bigger than Alvin.
But could happen.

As for the Atlantic we are on the B name.
Where's Barry?
If history repeats it's a weak early storm.
And the name lives for another season.

Let's look back at 2007.
Tropical Storm Barry.

In 2013 Barry was an early BOC system.

Tropics today........

The water is warm near the Yucatan.
It's very warm near the Florida Keys.
High pressure to the North......
...often opens a door to low pressure to the South of the High.
Keep watching as we move into July.

As for me going to be listening to Senorita today.
Over and over because I like it.
And Camilla is a smart, talented, beautiful woman.
Those things can go together.
Time for a smart, beautiful woman to believe....
..she can be the Director of the NHC.

Something to think on...
He landed in Miami......
The air was hot from summer rain.
Truth in those lyrics.

Close in development could happen early.
And waves could develop early.
But it depends on so many variables.
Only big question now is?
What happens next?

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Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram...follow me there for real time updates.


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