UPDATED!!! CAT 4 ---- Trying to Reason with Major Hurricane Florence - "FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR..." Model Discussion - Historic Perspective - What We Know Now. 92L Discussion - Thoughts From Voices Worth Listening To...
Intense, dangerous hurricane.
Far out at sea.
A good place for a Cat 4.
Despite the shear being thrown at it..
It seems to be ignoring it.
No surprise there.
I've said it was borderline 4 all day.
The NHC makes the call.
Remember that...
..especially when reading things online.
Discussion shows unanimous support for Cat 4 strength.
I've highlighted the important parts.
Below you can see the problem.
There is an opportunity for Florence to escape...
it's described as "threading a needle" thin.
Bermuda currently is in the cross hairs.
Dramatic looking storm
Inner eye wall well defined.
Wide...
As the sun begins to set on Florence
You can see the depth of the eye.
These images are taken from www.tropicaltidbits.com
I'd like to add if you have this App you're lucky.
It has a good floater loop that runs fluidly.
Models.
Specifically....
Today was sobering.
The GFS comes very close to landfall.
The EURO has it moving through SC inland.
Why the differences?
Speed, timing is often different.
IF Florence is where she can move N...
vs
...if she's moving faster and gets under a ridge trapped.
Or gets there slower.
It's all about timing and location.
Easiest way for you to "play" with the models?
Links up on Spaghetti Models top left.
You can use www.windy.com
I said PLAY.
Nothing is set in stone.
Each model run changes.
That model doesn't look good.
Stays kind of off shore.
To understand how the timing issue is impt.
SAME DAY ON THE EURO.....
Further South and it's inland AFTER Landfall.
Note it does show up on the last frame of the NOAA 7 day loop.
Offshore.
That's new.
But not unexpected.
If anything changes you will see it here first.
So I'll say this about that. At this point you will notice that the models have come closer into agreement. And yet they are different both in timing and location on each run, but they are coming closer together. One run slides it SW under a huge high towards Florida Georgia line, then the next model run has it out to sea, then the next model run has it hit NC, then the next model run has it hit South Carolina while yet another model shows it just off the South New England Coast. At some point the different models begin to zero in either on an escape route or a spot where it could make landfall. Timing is off as for some models landfall may be 8 days away and other models that have it moving slower have a possible landfall at 14 days away. And, some models take this little piggy and take her all the way out to sea after squeezing her through the very small eye of the needle. It's a crap shoot, don't lose any sleep over it right now and keep your eye on it. If you love the whole model drama "go for it" enjoy staying up til 3 AM, watch every model run. I'm not going to tell people not to do something I pretty much do and most of my friends do but we also know and understand the models are in the process of honing in on the ultimate solution that the NHC will DOWN THE ROAD use to make a cone for Florence 7 or 8 or 10 days from now. For the next FIVE days the ONLY place that should be concerned is BERMUDA. Nuff said. I may update later this evening.
I don't want to say I told you this would happen but I've been a big believer in the tenacity of Florence since when she was a strong tropical storm. She's tough and she seems better able than most to fight off shear and not the most optimal conditions. What will happen next? Stay tuned.
Check with the NHC always.
They are the bottom line.
I want to leave you with these thoughts.
Good thoughts well said.
Stay tuned...
...much can change between now and then.
Til then...
.. Florence is a Category 4 Hurricane.
Still very far away.
Again many of these loops are on Spaghetti Models.
Keep reading if you did not do so earlier.
I explain the 2 most possible solutions.
I give examples of other Major Hurricanes...
..that took different solutions.
And discussion on 92L close to forming.
* * *
Up close.
May see eye wall replacement cycles today...
Cone is shown down below.
NHC Discussion is more important now.
Unless you live in Bermuda.
Bermuda is in the cross hairs now.
Note in discussion above......
Uncertainty looms.
Protected Pocket ....
.... allowing Florence to intensify still.
Like a QB with a great Offensive Line.
Bottom Line.
Low confidence on track forecast.
She hasn't even hit the really warm water yet.
The hot water close to the coast...
...that we have been worrying about all season.
Pinned Tweets on Twitter are important.
It's a line in the sand.
A comment we feel is important.
My pinned tweet is from the other day.
When I knew Hurricane Florence was stronger...
...than the NHC forecast or advisory.
Another pinned tweet that is still valid.
Florence generally has 2 possibilities.
She finds the weakness and goes for it.
She continues west instead.
A few voices I listen to shown below.
Everyone has their own opinion.
Unless or until Florence shows up in the 5 day cone.
We are speculating and sharing information.
But what Mike says cannot be ignored.
This is what everyone is thinking...
From you to me to the NHC!
Busy times in the tropics.
I told you the tropics come alive in September.
So did Mike with that great graphic.
NHC map...
Watching 4 areas today.
I'm going to try and give some historic perspective and thoughts on the different problems that intensifying Major Hurricanes present when trying to forecast what they will do. There are different schools of thought and they are both valid and are basic rules of thumb. However, the main point here is the best thing to do is to watch Florence and see what she actually does as models change often and eventually the models put out a reliable product and the the NHC is the bottom line that we use as our rule of thumb as to when to be concerned and when to prepare. So often hurricanes like this threaten the whole East Coast in the long range models and then find a way to slip away paralleling the coast out to sea or up to the Canadian Maritimes. But, many storms have looped off the coast and done strange things when a high builds in a loft and the steering currents become weak. When you add a Major Hurricane into weak steering currents or trapped under a large High Pressure many things can happen other than the obvious terrifying landfall many graphics imply. While there are 2 main possibilities I'll add in the 3rd being it could get close to the coast, stall out in weak steering currents, loop over warm water with Spaghetti Model tracks going in every which way and it may then move towards landfall or parallel the coast out to sea as many other hurricanes have done since time began.
1. As hurricanes become stronger and intensify up into the atmosphere climbing the way a tall thunderstorms forms on a hot sunny, humid day. Unlike westbound tropical waves a strong hurricane will often, but not always, make a lunge to the North as hurricanes are prone to want to go towards the poles. They transfer energy around the globe from the equator region to the North Pole. Sometimes they do that but they take the long complicated road not the easiest road North. Except for those that rained themselves out far inland producing historic flooding, most hurricanes do go out to sea eventually. For instance Hurricane Hazel died out inland and Hurricane Camille made a right turn and eventually went out to sea. Hurricane Agnes tried to go out to sea but was blocked and created flooding far inland "up north" far from landfall in Florida.
Hazel above.
2. The odd part of a major hurricane is that over time they begin to build a High aloft above them and they can carry that high with them over a long distance and that high reinforces the movement and intensity. Hurricanes do best when they have a high above them... when they build their own high they do even better and they can move steadily along with that high and intact and in fact actually make their own steering currents. Well let's say when they are a Cat 3, Cat 4 or more they get a vote in their track vs a weak tropical storm caught up in the flow moving West with the westerlies. Note sometimes, actually often, even a strong hurricane can become trapped underneath a large high pressure ridge and even as strong as they are they tend to stay away from high pressure and bide their time and turn North later rather than sooner. Hurricanes are low pressure systems, they like to go where there are lows and stay away from high pressure on a very basic level. What has been amazing with Florence and as I have said this for days now is that she is stubborn and tenacious plowing WNW into an unfriendly environment and mixing up the dry air that keeps trying to wrap up into her as shown above in a graphic showing SAL still present yet not impressing her much. Storms like Florence are problematic as they can be rule breakers and history makers. They can also find a path out to sea after scaring everyone on the East Coast. Hurricanes often trace the shape of the high and even when they are Major they don't suddenly pull North. It helps if there is a cold front up North somewhere as cold fronts are "low pressure" and they like "low pressure" and are drawn like a magnet ... like bees to honey...and then when the cold front goes out to sea it takes the hurricane with it sparing the East Coast from a land fall. A cold front usually beats a hurricane, but every storm is different. They can and do take a weakness in a ridge but a cold front beats a weakness in the ridge always when it comes to where a hurricane will go down the road.
Andrew the cold front died out.
It was August after all.
A huge high built in...
...in the absence of the cold front.
Andrew turned West fast trapped under the high.
Even as a CAT FIVE it continued WEST.
DUE WEST.
Eventually it pulled North and died inland.
Hurricane Hugo above.
It was a MAJOR hurricane down in the Islands.
It began to pull more to the North..
But it didn't pull NNW by the islands ...
It was a monster major cane.
Yet it raced the high.
Waiting for a place to make landfall.
Died inland trying to go NE...
...making it up to Canada.
Georges was stubborn like Florence.
It turned major going towards the Islands.
The NHC kept talking about a weakness.
They kept forecasting a turn to the right.
Before the VI..
...then before PR
Then before Hispaniola.
Then...maybe Cuba....
Nope.
As my daughter Dina said......
...it didn't want to turn.
It traced the high.
Look how strong it was below.
Yet it did not go North yet......
...ignoring the suggestions of the NHC.
Then we have the odd loopers and stallers.
Everyone goes stark raving crazy...
People go shopping...
They see disaster at dawn...
And usually (not always) they slide away.
Think of models like Freddy
Or this movie
And why was The Shining in Twister??
Truly Mother Nature out does Stephen King always.
That's why he puts weather in his books.
Nothing scarier than Mother Nature on the rampage.
And yet.... so often....they find a way to escape.
The big problem today...TODAY...
Bermuda
IF Florence doesn't turn she may hit Bermuda.
This is NOT a model.
This is the NHC 5 Day.
If she does not make that turn...
This is the 3 day.
Showing this to remind you how LOW FLO is still.
Now for the models and online craziness.
Hey it is what it is...
A Major Hurricane has the energy of nuclear bombs.
So forgive us from getting a bit crazy when one is out there..
..and some models show it getting trapped under a ridge.
Moving West or WNW in the long range.
Also we are barely sleeping...
..so excuse any typos I'll fix them in real time.
More good thoughts from online...
Compare and contrast the size.
That area will produce a named storm.
Maybe two.
But one is likely to win out over the other.
Currently huge and not aligned the way..
...Florence to the NW of it is.
Invest 92L
Much depends on Florence.
Note it can stay Westbound.
It could take off after Florence.
Too soon to tell.
And there is one behind 92L...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
7th Day NOAA...
High Pressure in place.
Did Florence escape with option 1?
Or is Florence about to move into the picture?
If you see Florence on future loops.
Then you can take it more seriously.
Stay tuned.
As for the models........
1 frame from the GFS above.
The big scary EURO SHINING Image below.
1. Florence made landfall in this scenario.
2. Look at that huge hurricane size wise...
3. What is that sneaking into the Caribbean?
Feel free to loop and see the loop in motion yourself......
Remember new models will be out this afternoon they may totally show something different.
They are just models. For real information follow the NHC. Watch the storm itself in real time.
According to Facebook I grew up in California in the 1980s. That is partially true as I lived in West Hollywood in the 1980s and in ways I did grow up there going from childhood and teenage years to well growing up. I had a lot of fun there along the way....
Florence reminds me a lot of this song "Hit Me With Your Best Shot" by Pat Benatar and the movie Against All Odds.
Florence just keeps singing, "hit me with your best shot, fire away" and shear is fired at her and SAL is all around her and she keeps intensifying. This is her time... she might get stronger as she gets to the really warmer pool of water off the East Coast I've been ranting about all season. For now do not panic, enjoy the beauty from a good distance and enjoy the music. I'll update during the day at the top if anything unusual happens regarding intensity or modeling.
Florence just keeps singing, "hit me with your best shot, fire away" and shear is fired at her and SAL is all around her and she keeps intensifying. This is her time... she might get stronger as she gets to the really warmer pool of water off the East Coast I've been ranting about all season. For now do not panic, enjoy the beauty from a good distance and enjoy the music. I'll update during the day at the top if anything unusual happens regarding intensity or modeling.
Stay tuned........
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps....Thank you for all your great thoughts and discussion on Twitter on WhatsApp or the phone (with my best friend at midnight last night because I knew she was a Cat 3 last night at midnight) and it's good to share thoughts. We all focus on one thing more than the other and it helps to sometimes see things from someone else's perspective. The NHC is the bottom line and they are doing their best with a very difficult, tenacious, stubborn Major Hurricane that isn't following the basic rules they use. Again Major Hurricanes can sometimes make their own rules.
Labels: cat3, Cat4, discussion, eastcoast, FishStorms, Florence, GA, History, hurricane, Landfalls, major, maps, models, NC, SC, tracks, VA, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:51 AM
1 Comments:
Yeah, Gordon was a real "rain maker" alright! Less than 3 inches in Mobile, Alabama and less than 2 inches in Boloxi, MS. Where do they come up with these fictitious statistics and then feed them to the public? This hurricane was moving fast, very fast and was never going to be a rain maker!
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