Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 06, 2018

UPDATED... Burt Reynolds Dies ...Sad... FLORENCE WEAK...SHEAR IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY. Does Florence Turn Back to the West as Forecast Models Show? Does She Find An Escape Route? BERMUDA Needs to Watch Carefully. Today We Watch and Wait

Florence is forecast to crawl along Westward... search of warmer water and lighter shear.

Models below from



Same time but different locations.

EURO LINK TO RUN.. your own caution.
Not set in stone.

There are multiple models.
Some make landfall...
...some slip slide away.

Much depends on Florence and steering currents down the road.

What does the NHC say?

Major Points they want you to remember.

Some views of Florence this afternoon.

Good graphic to think on below.

Showing this map because that's WHEN.... 
...the weather, wind, surf can arrive.
Even if Florence turns North just before landfall..
..the weather travels far out in front of her.
We saw this with Matthew for example.

Note the E/W motion in the WV loop above.
Not a lot of angled areas from 4 to 2.
East to West mostly. 9 to 3.
And a high that will press down from above.
But until she makes that turn...
... it's hard to know for sure what will happen.
Could she fall apart?
Could she come back together and be a Major again?
Yes she could. Will she?
Time will tell.

Went out today with a good friend I met online from who lives up this way when not down in the Keys. Yeah, we got that traveling back and forth in common. Her Keys Cottage was slammed badly by Irma on Big Pine Key, she watches the tropics always. She's fun, she's smart and she's a very loyal person. She has little red convertible that hugs the road and I probably got a bit too much sun but I had fun and got away from staring at TWC and the loops and talking on Twitter about Florence. I wore my Spaghetti Models Tee Shirt. We did talk about Florence today, but today is the day to sit back and watch and see what Florence has left under her hood. She's weakening as fast as she intensified and that's logical as she is basically a small system and they are prone to handle curves faster than a big truck. They also can stay together in negative conditions and come back later to show everyone like Andrew who almost died out in the Atlantic before turning West and stepping on the gas. 

It is logical to believe that IF Florence hangs on she ends up somewhere near the coast of the Carolinas either about to head North along the coast, clipping the coast or staying off the coast and threatening cities up along the way. I'm talking Tidewater Virginia could get more than it bargained for as could the Del Marva and beaches all the way up to Long Island and New England. The steering currents suck and I say that honestly because it's too damn hot and there is no real COLD front on the way just rain and low pressure that could pull a hurricane in vs a cold front that would sweep it out to sea.

Ever get the feeling that Florence is playing with the NHC?
I mean they say her winds stay low...
...her winds go high.
They say her winds will maintain and stay low...
...her winds go high.. she goes Cat 4
They say her winds will stay high...
...her winds go low.
They say her winds will come back....
...her winds stay low.

I came home to the news that Burt Reynolds died. Really sad news, unexpected in ways though not surprising. You just don't really want to see a legend die ever. We are born to die but not all of us are as entertaining as Burt was and will be forever on old videos. Probably the first VHS movie tape I bought was Smoke and the Bandit. Probably one of the first movies I bought on CD was Smokey and the Bandit. I am nothing if not consistent. I grew up in a part of Miami that was known as "Little Georgia" which meant it was more Redneck than Tropical or Glitzy and the boys raced cars, fixed their cars, then raced them again. One of the hottest date nights was at the Stock Car Races somewhere out on Bird Road or cheering on the boys playing baseball out on Bird Road. We had pick up trucks and back yard BBQs that everyone showed up at and guys drank beer and moonshine and the really cool boys would race up to South of the Border to buy fireworks for July 4th Weekend. Fun times and knew a lot of guys, cute guys, a lot like Bandit; probably still do. In the 1980s living in LA we actually used CB radios to talk and joke and waited for the new Smokey and the Bandit movie to come out; it was guaranteed fun and entertainment. Actually I liked him in lots of movies but he will forever be Bandit to most of us so I'm going to some weather commentary here on Florence using scenes from the movie and pretty sure many of you can get the jokes and see how well they fit in as we try and chase down solutions for Florence and it seems no matter what the NHC does they have problems getting a handle on her intensity wise ...though they might be doing better with her track. Time will tell.

It reminds me of this epic Smokey and the Bandit scene.

This scene reminds me of the models...
...trying to chase a solution for Florence.
GFS and EURO hot on it's tail...

This is the late night crew on Twitter...
..sitting up tweeting waiting for the next EURO run.

My absolute favorite scene ...
...well one of them...

Oh Bandit... we will forever miss you.

* * * 

Last Night
A well defined eye.

This morning...
...less defined hurricane.

Again last night.

This morning, battling shear.
Shear blowing convection to the right of the center.
Circulation visible.
Struggling to fight off the shear.

Good loop of the above screen shots..
If you missing the floater... Tropical Tidbits has a good one up along with his other products.

Wider views.

You get a better perspective going wide.
Note ULL to the West of her above.

Florence is a different looking storm this morning.
Strong hurricane.
But fighting off strong shear.
Also pretty much in the middle of the ocean.
Getting closer to our side of the world.
Much closer to Bermuda.

Bermuda is basically in the cone.
Then where does she go?
Not even the NHC is sure.

Link to discussion.

Good basic discussion.

This is really as typical as it gets on some levels for a high latitude cruising hurricane in September. It all hinges on the strength of the high and the ridge where hurricanes sometimes get trapped or caught and as Mike says then they "shoot West" or take a "fast track out of here" if the ridge opens up.  Listening to Mike on Facebook Live as I type this, he's good to listen to and he explains all the possibilities. Why? Because he rambles LIVE and tells you what is on his mind without too much censor and he doesn't have to worry on his job at some network or saying something in his discussion that could lose him his job. Many a forecaster at the NHC has been haunted by a poorly written discussion or going out on a limb too much. Mostly the NHC stays conservative and if they are a little wrong they edge the cone a bit more to the left or to the right. In the end most times that works out just fine. 

Going to try to keep this short as I've been going long the last few days so if you have not read those posts feel free to go back and read over some very good discussion on steering dynamics and historical hurricanes that are good examples for what may or may not happen. Today is the day to watch and wait vs obsess on long term crazy model runs or fantasize that Florence is going to go Cat 10 and take out all of the East Coast. Man ... you hear some crazy things online and before "online" people sat outside on the front porch (because there was no AC) and sat around tossing out crazy scenarios and nothing really has changed with human nature except now your human nature is on display for the whole world to see not just Tim, Jim and Junior. In the old days their wives were inside sitting by a fan talking on the phone to their best friends debating what they would do if that big old hurricane comes this way. 

People love to rant about the Internet but in truth it just tends to accentuate our own behavior off line. If you are bubbly and positive and friendly you talk to everyone, laugh a lot and don't take things too seriously when someone loses it at your overly bubbly posts. If you are sarcastic, easily annoyed and have little patience it shows up in petulance online as well. If you are a Good Ole Boy than you are pretty much fun to be with online as you would be on the phone or sitting at Chili's laughing and talking. It's your choice who you listen to and who you enjoy spending your time with and I say spending because time is money. Time has value and what you get by talking online on Facebook or Twitter or making friends and followers on Instagram is an Investment in odd ways of your time, your pleasure and possibly knowledge you will gain, use and share. You want to vent... it's a great place to vent. As you all know I have a blog and I sometimes vent and say things I probably wouldn't randomly blurt out in TARGET or at Temple or while at a family wedding. Online is fun for me and I've made good friends; actually I met my husband online which is truly ironic though mostly we talked on the phone while doing the long distance dating  traveling back and forth from Miami to North Carolina and we are still making that trip regularly. 

Enough about me...   Many things I'll say and many secrets I'll keep and today is the day to wait, watch Florence and see how she interacts with the very strong shear being blasted at her like a fire hose and watch the set up down the road of the highs, the ridges, the cool fronts (there are no COLD fronts this year) and wait for the models to come into some sort of agreement. The models are posted in real time at shown below. Feel free to check them once and a while or get blisters on your forefinger hitting refresh way too much. 

I know you want to see the GFS and EURO.
As of 10 AM this is the last frame on those two.

Let's start with the EURO

Euro is logical.
Could happen.
Slides along the Outer Banks.
How often do we see that?
It does show impacts to SC, NC and VA.

Next we have the GFS

GFS shows an escape route.
Florence scares many people along the East Coast.
Then slides along as many do...
..flirting with Long Island and NE.
GFS opens up the ridge more.
EURO snaps it shut more.

Below is the Canadian.
Shows a landfall.
Basically though all 3 show similar things.
It's the least reliable model people say..
..but it often is close and shows the set up.

It's almost as if hurricanes don't want to make landfall.
They try to find that weakness and ...
....take it often close to shore.

That's why we prepare for the worst...
...and hope for the best.

All show more development behind Florence.

As for the NOAA loop that I like.
The 7 day forecast loop for forecasters.
In truth...they change it in real time..
..if things change.
A good loop to watch.

It shows Florence on the 7th day approaching
And taking a track to the N
Staying offshore.
Too close to be sure right now.
But a good thought.

From my 10 years of experience in the Carolinas...
I've learned that most of the time ...
They either find a weakness in the ridge...
"slip sliding away"
..or come extremely close and clip the Outer Banks..
..then do the same with the tip of Long Island.
On their way out to sea.
But not always.

Speaking of the F storm...
Today in NC it is the anniversary of Hurricane Fran.
Another F storm that aimed at NC..
But did NOT turn away.
Damage was historic far inland.
Hurricanes always tear up the beaches..
...but few cause so much damage far inland.
Like Hazel before her Fran make landfall...
...and kept on going.

 I watched Fran on TWC endlessly...
...back in the old days of AOL and message boards.
Who knew I'd end up living in North Carolina?

I'll leave you with this excellent true thought.
I've followed him since before AOL...
...we were on Palm Beach Post Message boards.
Good times ...
... still good times.

Still talking about the weather :)

We will know more by tomorrow.
For now the models are narrowing in on the track.
For now she is out at sea trying to get her Mojo back

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Just one thing to remember. As a weaker storm she most likely gets further West than she would have had she stayed a Cat 4 barreling NW up towards a door to the North Atlantic. As a weaker storm she is expected... to move back to the West more. Then she finds warmer water and if her core is still ticking she will ramp back up in intensity and we will be back to worrying whether she is going to be a historic F storm like Fran or Floyd that will make landFall or if she will be another teaser that made us worry and then cheer when she disappeared. Oh right you wanted to know about Invest 92L ...sorry my bad. I'll update today if and when things change.

Invest 92L should become Helene and then we get the chance to do it again.... It's September at the heart of the Hurricane Season what else would you expect in what seems to be a busy season after all.

For the Rock fans here...
September rocks you like a hurricane.

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At 6:30 AM, Anonymous Jordie said...

Bobby, how does Florance compare to Isabel


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