Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, August 26, 2017

UPDATED! 1000K PPL Rescued. Part 2 Harvey. Flash Flooding in Houston. Rockport Texas Devastation. 2 Areas To Watch in the Atlantic. 92L and New African Wave. A Look Back at When Harvey Formed August 17th.

Extreme Flooding.
Flash Flooding.
Harvey Part 2


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The center is to the west.
Flooding Rains.

Besides TWC .. source of news.

While not never ending...
...this will not end for DAYS.

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That was the lead from the NHC.
Catastrophic Flooding.
Models called it.
Main Point This AM.
Stay home.
Stay safe.

This is not a matter of hype.
This is historical.

The "center" of Harvey is over land, the convective mass associated with him still is partly over water and pumping the moist air and heavy moisture feed incessantly into the Houston area.

Looks like a tornado signature.
And the floods will do that level damage.

That green below is heavy moisture.
Water Vapor Loop.

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The discussion for Harvey at 5 AM.
Shows "near the coast"
Not good news.

They are begging people to stay home, call 911, go to the highest place in your home (including your roof if you can get there) and wait for help. Yet waiting is hard to tell people to do when they are already in their attic; when the water has already flooded the first floor of their second floor apartment building. This is a truth ...if you can. This situation will not end today but go on and on for the next several days and spread out into other areas across the region. Houston was hit last night with intense bands of rain and multiple tornado warnings. I'll be back later today when the sun rises in Houston and there is hard data to go along with the headlines. They cannot keep track of the people rescued, way over 1,000 people overnight. And I'm guessing that many waiting to be rescued later today. We had warnings, but people don't want to believe something that seems impossible to believe. This flooding will go up there along with the Johnstown Flood and Katrina yet it's a slow motion disaster and we knew it was coming.

Below is discussion on Harvey
And 2 other areas of interest in the tropics.
Irma may form off the SE Coast later this week!

* * *

A look back at just before landfall.

A well developed Cat 4 Hurricane.
Look at that eye.

For those who thought the Atlantic was dead.
Think again.

Things change fast in the tropics.
It's like turning on a switch.
One day nothing.
Suddenly something.

August 14th 91L on the maps.
Talk and worry on long range models.

On August 17th Harvey forms.
Note the cone below.

Look at that first satellite image.
Harvey before the islands. 

Discussion online 

91L long range models.
Destined to go into the GOM.

On August 17th with the first cone the NHC had the top part of the cone going into the BOC. And early on there was discussion and concern by many that it could get into the Gulf of Mexico. We always like to laugh off long range models and early bird fears on fantastic Katrina like scenarios. With the anniversary of Katrina coming up ... many who live in that region of the US were scared and concerned. And in retrospect for good reason as Hurricane Harvey will go down into History with the famous hurricanes we look back and study. Harvey's name will be brought up years from now with Carla and Katrina and other very destructive hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. And the nonstop rain currently in progress will add a layer to Harvey's story that few other hurricanes can rival.

Usually when a Hurricane makes landfall, you hunker down and it moves on and in a few days it has joined up with a Cold Front or is out to sea on it's way to Nova Scotia or England. Not Harvey, he is not in a rush to leave. And again those long range models that showed Harvey getting into the Gulf of Mexico also were right on Harvey stalling out, moving slowly, making small loops over Texas for days after landfall. The rain projections I spoke about earlier in the week can very well come to pass or even be surpassed. The loop below shows the moisture being pulled out of the GOM into Harvey now inland.

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Close up of the radar for the Houston area

That dark red band is dangerous.
Harvey is inland.
But his weather keeps coming.

These areas in red are under the gun.
And Harvey is shooting severe weather still..

There isn't much I can to you tonight about Harvey that hasn't been said or shown online all day. The destruction in some places is extreme and the structure of life will have to be rebuilt from the ground up in some places like Rockport. A high school, a hospital needs to be rebuilt and lives need to be glued back together. One problem in the years after a hurricane is the toll it takes on people who never feel totally safe again. They are grateful to be alive, together and yet like that family heirloom you super glue back together; it's repaired but you can see where it was broken if you look carefully. Lives changed, rearranged and it takes a long time for life to simply just go on.
Rockport Texas before Harvey

Looks like a paradise of sorts.

Rockport after Harvey.
Like a war was fought.

It's cliche to say like a bomb went off...
... after Andrew it did look like that.

So where do we go from here?
It's August. 
Remember September?

For one 92L is still there.
Beware the ones that are still there.

Models from Spaghetti Models.

Intensities are low.

And there's a new player on the block.
In the Atlantic.

It's still coming off of Africa.


To keep this in perspective.
Below is 91L AKA Harvey.
2 weeks ago.

Houston is beginning to flood from the heavy rain over the last hour that has been training over the same place now all night. This is honestly a slow motion disaster added to the disaster of a landfalling Category 4 Hurricane. This is not hype, it's a short term forecast for the next 3 or 4 days of rain, heavy rain over a small area and flooding will be a problem and misery will be multiplied by the added post script of Harvey's historic landfall. There is an ongoing Flash Flood emergency tonight as I type this and it gets worse not better.

Again please give to the Red Cross of a charity you know is reliable in the Texas areas as it is needed now and it will be needed over the next several months as people try to rebuild their lives. And life goes on in the tropics and more waves roll off of Africa and things form close in. This is only the beginning of the busy part of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 

 A system may form off the Carolinas in the near term from the ongoing drama that has been 92L and it may be tropical, subtropical or just a strong low pressure system.  And far away in the Atlantic is that wave coming off that may or may not develop.

Get a plan.
Just in case.
Easier now than later.
If you didn't take me seriously.
After Harvey you have to...
Be #HurricaneStrong.

Donate first.

Then get a plan.
The tropics are just warming up.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

African Waves keep on rolling.

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