Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

UPDATED 8 PM - Problem With Cindy - Now Deadly Tropical Storm as Child Dies in Alabama. Dangers For More Death, Destruction & Injuries Up the Road

Center is still offshore remember that.
Wicked, deadly weather to the East in her bands.
Notice the spirals in her circulation below

In motion:

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

(remnants of Bret flaring up)
(new wave in Atlantic flaring up)
(ignore things in parenthesis) 

Global view below.

GEIR.JPG (720×720) 

Link to the details in the sad story and some pictures from the scene. It's enough to say wind whip up surf and things happen that wouldn't normally happen. A large, heavy log tossed by the surf seems to have struck the young boy and he died. His family was nearby and he was very close the rental property they were staying in. That's the gist of the story, enough to know he died and others might as trouble happens when a system covers such a huge, immense area of land. The larger the area the higher the risk is for injuries and death. Not because of the strength of Cindy, but due to her size covering so many states.

Again a small compact, fast moving Cat 1 would have been easier.

The issue here with Cindy is her huge tail, massive rain shield and it's movement towards merging with an old dying frontal boundary giving it problems few storms possess. A look back at 1972 when Hurricane Agnes made landfall and then went on to deliver massive flooding rains from the GOM up to through the NE. Weather historians remember storms like Agnes when we see the potential for huge flooding way upstream from landfall from a huge, wet hurricane with a tail down into the Caribbean merging with an old frontal boundary in June.

Compare similarities to the set up.

Hurricane Agnes above.
TS Cindy below.

Not as bad as Agnes... 
...hopefully no where near as bad.
But the potential for similar flooding is there.
Huge rain shield.
Dying front, merged with tropical cyclone.
HUGE tail down into the Caribbean.
Traveling across hilly and mountainous areas down the road.

Why I say the cone is less important with Cindy.
The forecast rainfall is the bigger concern.

Watch the loop and watch the tail.

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Oh look bottom right...
...what's that?

There's your cone!

What you need to know is..
There are hills, streams and mountains in it's cone.
Cindy + Dying Front + orographic effect = flooding

Landfall will be messy.
The bigger story may come in a few days.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.


The problem with Tropical Storm Cindy is that it has now claimed the life of a 10 year old boy from what appears to be flying debris. Details are coming in but the death has been confirmed, reported and the term "deadly" has been attached to Cindy. Many will be annoyed people will now report it as Deadly Tropical Storm Cindy and yet death is death and someone has died. And it is not surprising as the sheer size of a geographic area being affected by high winds, squally weather, high seas and debris caught up in strong bands coming on shore makes the situation ripe for the title Deadly. That is why the NHC has erred so much on the side of caution with this system even back when it was a Potential Tropical Cyclone.

The evolution of this situation and the need to convey the dangers inherent aren't easy when you look at the radar and it looks like another summer thunderstorm moving onto the beach. The Satellite signature doesn't scream "WATCH OUT" and for those of you who do not watch TV and don't see the TWC nonstop coverage and are watching HULU or NETFLIX the dangers may fly under the radar. Sadly, debris flies in the wind and it's deadly even in small tropical storms.

The watches and warnings are up and yet it's hard to tell people across a wide area to lay low and wait for the storm to move on. I know life goes on. Rules are often broken and warnings ignored when you are far from a weak tropical storm and you are used to dealing with much larger Hurricanes. And, that is the biggest problem Cindy delivers in that it's "just a weak tropical storm" and it's easy to believe this is all overkill in the media trying to get ratings and attention with lead news stories.

Look at the number of watches and warnings up above for that area.
Note the Tropical Storm symbol shown below.

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

It may not look like a serious system.
See those strong red cells moving onto shore?
Between them we think we can easily go about business.
Run out to the store, stop at the beach quick.
But they are moving fast in that tail with high gusts.
A rain wrapped tornado can be hidden in a rain band.
You might never see it coming...

Let's look at a map.

Let's look at a random town.
Shreveport, Louisiana

You think to yourself it's far to the North of the coast.
Safer from problems of landfalling Cindy.
And yet there is a Flash Flood Watch.

Cone above from NHC

Warnings from NWS below:

Move further to the East and NE of Shreveport.
Elevation of the land adds to the problems.
So many small towns, rivers, streams and even bayous.

You have areas far inland that rarely deal directly with tropical storms other than a bit of rain as they fall apart. Cindy is merging with a stalled out frontal boundary and the rain will work it's way far inland. It's not being scooped up by a hungry, strong front and swept out to sea like so many Category 2 Hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico are prone to doing. This is and will be a slow motion disaster in both dollar amounts and possibly more loss of life. It's a huge area under the gun from rain, wind, tornadoes, flash floods and add in fatigue in that people begin to get tired of staying home. They go out and about figuring they will be safe and sometimes that works and sometimes that doesn't work so well. 

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Watch the merging of Cindy with the frontal boundary above.

There has also been a news story being some what attributed to Cindy when an United flight was hit by extreme turbulence and at least 12 have been injured. The FAA is looking into the incidence but if you are flying today along a route near Cindy keep your seat belt on as they often suggest but most people don't do.

And Cindy looks more tropical this hour.
And with every hour ...

And that tail will head straight towards land.
Carrying strong wind with it.
Lay low, let it go it's way.
The sun will come out eventually.
Easy to say I know.

avn-animated.gif (720×480)

Wider view allows you to see the depth of that tail.
Also remnants of Bret are caught up in the flow.
Bret's remnants being fed by moisture off of South America.
An ULL lies between the tail of Cindy and Ex Bret.

Up the road, up hill across the Southeast.
Cindy will continue to spread misery.
Even as a barely there tropical storm.
Think of Cindy more as a Weather Event.
A dangerous weather event.
And now it will be called Deadly Cindy.
Hope and pray it is the last death attributed to Cindy.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps There is more weather out there to talk on in a few days.
It may not develop or it might.
But June this year is more like August in most years.

Waves are moving off of Africa.

This area is highlighted in purple to watch...

Again note the area highlighted below.
The potential for inland flooding is huge.

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