Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 22, 2017

NHC & CINDY Divorce Final .. Inland & Passing Cindy Off to the NWS. EX Bret & Wave in Atlantic. Post Game Discussion on Models GFS Victory over EURO (kind of) Cantore Covers Flooding IN Lake Charles Area

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A bit of a post game analysis on Tropical Storm Cindy this morning and then I'll talk on a few things to think about down the road. The models overall did an excellent job of sniffing out development where Cindy was concerned despite massive differences. In truth both of the hot shot models were right. The GFS kept smelling huge amounts of rain and low pressure along the NE Gulf of Mexico coast, however it was wrong with it's intensity forecast. The Euro that stubbornly insisted a small tropical cyclone would form and hook left towards Texas was wrong on the extreme left hook to Mexico. And over time the Euro inched itself northeastward towards Mexico and came more in line with the GFS that moved it's landfall from the NW coast of Florida a bit further West. Sometimes the models look as if they are trying to stay out of court and in mediation. Much like a real estate deal where a seller wants an unrealistic price and a buyer wants to get it as cheap as possible it's the realtor's job to convince them both to agree on middle ground.

Back on June 15th the top two models showed the solutions above. That was long range modeling for a system that never really formed a closed center until just before landfall. And, even then it had multiple centers rotating around one oblong, closed center. Now in reality the EURO was WAY off, however in any other year it most likely would have been on the money. The GFS showed an immensely large closed Low moving up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards landfall near Mobile or Pensacola Bay. This year in particular the desert SW had some extreme heat planes were forbidden to land in Phoenix and many airlines had to cancel flights. That huge High took over the SW and the SW bleeds into Texas from a meteorological point of view and it made the usual friendly realm of the BOC in June be downright inhospitable. Despite my respect for the EURO I didn't find it's solution to be correct. As for the GFS I didn't think the low would wrap that much nor be so strong and with no strong cold fronts and lack of steering currents it would be hard for a weak kneed large low pressure Gyre to make a run for the gold in Apalachicola. It's akin to turning a big rig on a small country road that has a sharp bend with water on either side; not happening. You need a stronger system and a stronger front to grab a cyclone in the GOM in June and hook it right hard.

Where did that leave the messy, large potential tropical cyclone 3? It avoided the west side of the GOM and found the slight weakness between the high to the right and the high to the left and stayed in the middle drifting slowly North carrying heavy tropical moisture along with it until finally after flirting with an ULL in the NW GOM it tried as hard as it could to inch it's way more to the West and make landfall around the Sabine River between Louisiana and Texas and moved on up to Lake Charles area while it's real weather slammed into the area along Mississippi, Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Basically the GFS nailed the precipitation and murky weather while the Euro moved closer to where the weakly developed center of low pressure coughed itself up onto the beaches along the Sabine River with just a part of her moisture officially hitting Texas. Discussion from NHC is below with current location of Cindy.

"Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States."

Now what? It tangles with the new frontal boundary after merging with the old dead frontal boundary and a lot of this will be played out in real time depending on how much gas the new front has in it's tanks and how far it can go. I've outlined the possible flooding conditions that occur when a tropical system merges with a front and elevation of land can lead to huge localized flooding.  Showing Mike's post on Facebook below as it tells the tale again that I have been saying for days. Inland flooding over the next few days is possible across a huge expanse of the SE and then the Mid Atlantic while tropical moisture continues to train in along the beaches of GOM

Mike explains the problem with Cindy well.
I've talked incessantly on the flooding dangers.
So let's move on.

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I'm watching what was Bret for two reasons.
Shouldn't have been anything left of it..
...but there is so keep watching.
It also enhances moisture in the long tail of Cindy.

And, I'm watching the wave in the Atlantic.
It does have a purple splotch shown below..
..however models are not in love with it.
Again for a wave to leave Africa in JUNE..
..and be this recognizable as it nears the islands is HUGE.

So that's the state of the tropics today.
The big story may become the flooding from Ex-Cindy.
The plug has been pulled. Last advisory written.

Follow Cindy at the NWS

Tropics may be quiet for a few days.
But never say never so keep watching.

I'm taking a break myself a bit today and enjoying life. Celebrating my son's sale of a beautiful, luxury lot (vacant land) on Miami Beach about a mile and a half north of where he was raised. Levi Meyer of Compass Realty fame knows Miami Beach and knows how to convince two sides to come together unlike others who held the listing but could not! My son is on the right ;) If you know someone who wants to sell or buy land in the tropical paradise.. Levi Meyer knows Real Estate in Miami like Jim Cantore knows Hurricanes and Thundersnow!!

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm 
I tweet faster than I blog.

Ps. GFS may have gotten better.
Euro may just have lost this one.
Time will tell.

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