Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, January 05, 2017

UPDATED! Winter Storm Warnings For the South. Atlanta to Raleigh I95 I85 in it. Check for Updates Often. Buy What You Need & Hunker Down. Stay OFF the Highways...

Brief Thursday Night Update. 
Winter Storm Warning Across Much of the South.

Models come in with new solutions.
More complicated than it looks.
Though that's the plot line in the Carolinas always.

Aside from the snow estimates vs sleet estimates.
The line always goes through Wake County.
Does the system thread the needle or go wide right?
Or wide left?

Then there is the model discussion on sub zero weather.
Raleigh rarely gets single digits so that would be historic.

Again just noting what the models are implying.
Models imply and often contradict.
That's not just hurricane season but all seasons.
It's a weather thing...

So how low will it go in Raleigh?

1 degree?



You see the problem?
Another good local voice ....

Looks like an igloo a little bit.

Seriously the problem here is this is ALL about modeling.
Winter Storms like this go incognito until they appear.
Almost magically "THERE IT IS!!!"
Til then you don't see it.
Very different from Hurricanes.

I chase hurricanes.
I do not chase snow storms.
I bundle up and stare endlessly...
as white solid stuff falls from the sky.
Still a Miami girl up in NORTH Carolina.

What will I see Friday Night?
Hard to say.
Frozen precipitation.
Maybe some sleet.

That yellow and fuchsia line is right near Wake County
And the storm is not all that visible just yet.

Where's the storm?

I had a best friend, chiropractor.
He'd work on me for headaches.
He'd put both hands on either side of my head.
Hold them there and then take the away.
Then he'd look down at me sort of upside down ...
and say...
"Where's the pain?"
I'd giggle.
He was annoying.

I feel like that about Winter Storm Helana right now.

Where's the storm?

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Decided to screw it and watch Nashville tonight ;)

While looping.

Time will tell........
Stay tuned for a morning update on 

! ! ! !
If you keep reading you'll here more in depth discussion...

Weather headlines today in Hurricane Country are all about SNOW!

Some good voices below to listen to... 

The concern on the temperatures following the slow is real.
Usually in the South it snows and melts.
In this case it won't melt so fast.

And again it's not that Southerners do not understand the snow.
We understand it trust me. We are just not prepared for it!
We don't have snow tires or chains....
... and small roads don't get plowed.
We are not set up for long term snow.
And budgets don't always allow for snow plowing.
In Upstate NY it snows... when it stops...
the first person on the road is driving the snow plow.
Not so down here ... few snow plows.
And they use them on the major roads.

And then there are the naysayers who don't believe it will snow.
A lot like people with hurricanes.
So often the storm fizzles out.
So often that person gets stuck on the frozen road ...

(That's a very steep hill the pic doesn't do it justice)

People are already buying bread.
Well to be fair people who like Dave's Killer Bread ;)

Those shelves will get more bare this evening.
Eggs, milk and I see lots of french toast in my crystal ball!
It's a Carolina Thing I can't explain it really.

But get to the store early is my best advice.
Prepare for someone to possibly lose power...
Keep phones charged & charger sticks fully charged.
Stay home, be safe, hunker down.
It will melt eventually...

And please check with the NWS often.
They update actually faster than the NHC in real time.

Understand I am using Raleigh below as an example because I live here and the storm is coming here. All you have to do is follow the same method of researching on Google and find your own forecast from the NWS. IF you are reading my long read blogs, you can work your way through the NWS forecast discussion. It is what the local weather people in your area use to put out their brief, graphic laden on air forecast for you. It's also what goes into the forecast with your Apps or hysterical hyped comments on your Facebook feeds preaching snow armageddon and we know we all have that one relative right?

NWS Raleigh Forecast Discussion
NWS Atlanta Forecast Discussion
NWS Wilmington Forecast Discussion

They will all get you to a link for the discussion for your area.
If you are not already proficient in surfing for weather news.
That's my best advice.
No one does your local weather like the NWS.

Okay I was a bit backwards this morning....
...but note it still got me to the same place.

Usually it's the first link.

In my case this is what NWS says this morning.

I highlighted the blue part for you.
Also the red color shows this was an update.
Another point I'm trying to make.
The NWS updates in real time.
Note the LAST LINE and word "conservative"
That's not a political comment but a heads up!

We are currently under a Winter Storm Watch.
That's like being in the 5 Day Cone with a Hurricane Watch up.

Translating from Hurricanease to Winter Talk ;)

From Mike's weather page.
Note the intense reds outlining the state of NC.
Look at the Great Lakes.
Looks like a fuchsia palm tree!

We go back to #winterwinning this weekend in the South.
Any variation in the storm track can make a big difference.
As the satellite loop shows this is a West to East event.
That could move further South and sock Fayetteville.

Note their Newspaper shows that well.

Note this includes FORT BRAGG.
Also the parts of  I95 that were slammed by Hurricane Matthew.

Let's look at a loop

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

See how this system is moving West to East.
Where the flat bands of snow set up is everything.
Again the NWS said they were being conservative for now.

The variation in how different places are handling this is evident.
TWC shows single digits in the Raleigh area or close to it.
I woke up this morning to everything from 6 degrees to 15 degrees.
TWC says 6 degrees today for Sunday morning.
You can remember that on Sunday if they were right...
Different apps, different sources, different calls...
Some conservative others a bit hyped perhaps.
We will know better Sunday morning.

If the placement of the Low varies from the models.. 
It can mean Raleigh gets slammed or Rocky Mount gets it.
Or Wilmington and Down East like we say here gets it.
Could Myrtle Beach see snow?
Who knows for now?

So everyone needs to prepare for significant ground coverage of snow.
Accumulation of snow in a part of the South not used to that.
Monday morning school cancellations.
Possibly late school starts most of the week or cancellations.
By Tuesday or Wednesday we may be tired of seeing snow.
But for now I'm excited.

Every town has it's official source for news.
WRAL is it here for many.

Another view of the storm totals below:

Think of this as a snow cone.

Speaking of snow....

Here's a recipe I have never tried. 
But some swear by it.

Google just gives me this recipe ;)

Pictures ;)

Understand before I go for now this storm affects the South.
The highways and byways of the our lives.


Atlanta to Raleigh...
New York to Miami ...

Are you driving to Miami for warmer weather?
You may have some problems in the Carolinas.

Plan accordingly.
I'll be back later for updates.

Hurricane forecasting is easy compared to snow forecasting.
Especially in the Carolinas or Georgia.
Nothing is ever certain until it begins to fall.

If you are flying or taking Amtrak check for updates.

If the highway closes there are food shortages.
Mail, UPS... weather affects everything.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps if you are traveling keep blankets, drinks, snacks with you...
...cause Mother Nature is on the rampage this weekend!
(worth reading their story trust me)
And an incredible bread I found in Seattle..
..that has arrived in the Raleigh Triangle area.

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