Hilary Downgraded to TS. Emily Forms From 98L. Is 90L Going to be Franklin? Old Wave, New Waves It's All Tropical Rock and Roll to Me. Ps This Hilary Mess is Way Bigger Than Just LA... 90L Wants to do Hispaniola. GOM Gets a Named Storm?? Maybe??

Should put a disclaimer on this blog today as I wrote it while dealing with asthma (mild asthma but meds make me more crazy than normal) and note the weather set up on the West Coast that grabbed Hilary and her many rainy remnants is going to impact many people beyond LA that the media is focused on. For me it's personal I lived there a long time. In the Atlantic we are waking up but it's not your Momma's Hurricane Season despite the really hot water in the MDR and yes El Nino is a player. So come along on a magical, mystery tour of BobbiStorm's tropical mind today while Hilary is all the rage and we wait to see what really happens in the Atlantic, down the tropical road.

11 AM

Emily forms from Invest 98L

Emily from 98L

Papin always does good discussion.

Currently not expected to be a Hurricane.

To be silly but honest.

This means in actuality that 90L

Should be Franklin.

Seeing as African Wave isn't an Invest.

It'd be hard to see it upgraded to TS.

90L is the real deal.

The real troublemaker on the chart.

I wrote about it further down the blog.

I'm taking Asthma meds which make me want to write forever, but also make me a bit jittery so I spilled my coffee in my desk drawer with my make up and my pens and decided "screw it I'm waiting for the 11 AM) as I knew they'd upgrade something and as I said ealier on Twitter... come on this is ridiculous. 98L has looked closed for more than a day .... yet 99L got the TD6 designation and 90L looks ready to party in Hispaniola according to the models. So bear with me this blog is epically all over the place and a good measure of my mood at the moment. One eye on Hilary coverage (omg) and the other on Atlantic loops.

Now we have 5 Contestants.

GOM, 90L, TD 6, Emily, New African Wave.

It comes down to 2....

90L should be the next named storm.

It's beginning to feel like a Miss Universe Contest.

Hanging out near South America.

Then takes off like a rocket.

Matthew style indeed.

Time will tell.

Has to form and get going.

Get some dropsondes in it.

As satellites often miss the "core"

As for Hilary....

Honored Phil used my post (we call them posts now ..not tweets) and my biggest fear here is that many parts of the country that get destructive weather (rain with some wind from the set up not specifically Hilary that is just caught in the meteorological set up) that people are going to complain all the media did was talk about LA. That's true and just the way the media works. I studied journalism for my English degree the Professor told me I should write a long Novel :) but honestly it's not funny because everyone in LA and San Diego are worried but this is about all the little towns out in the desert on the 10 between LA and Palm Springs and Vegas and up into Nevada, parts of Arizona, Idaho, Montana the rain just keeps on going like a case of Covid on a cruiseship. Two of my kids went on a recent cruise, with different groups of people and many of them came down with Covid afterwards. Short lived, annoying but still going around and around. And, the media has moved on to Hawaii and LA but the real story will be in all the little downs in Riverside, Barstow, just look at a map and throw a dart and someone is going to complain "all you talked about was LA"

Lastly and need to take a break here. There is the possibility of a set up of moisture coming up from the EPAC into the Carib and forming into a system (storm) that travels up in the same way 90L will do but from a differnet angle and if that happens, once the High is busted up a bit and the pattern flips a bit that ..that storm could impact the GOM and/or Florida and yes that means Cuba gets it too! IF that happens and we have all been looking at long range models for the tropics and the atmosphere and this is not wishcasting. Even Jim Cantore mentioned it this morning so if Jim can mention it I can. Can..Cantore, get it? Told you I was in a mood.

Too soon to tell.

Maybe it hovers around the Yucatan.

Maybe it doesn't form.

Most models show something forms.

And when the MDR is shut down.

Usually energy gets shifted elsewhere.

And the SW Carib is a dangerous place...

...as the potential for huge hurricanes is there.

Hot water, untapped.

Ready and waiting.

Where does it go?

Nobody knows.

IF it forms.

And at some point maybe the High will snap back.

With all the talk on the hot MDR

This is the place to watch.

That and down the road the NATL again.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading

It's a mystical magical journey....

...medicationally inspired.

But hey my breathing is better.

Late Summer... Asthma in Raleigh.

Summer ends, Fall begins.

YAY!!

Keep reading it's all relevant.

Sorry for any typos...

...not proofing.

It's a Sunday Blog.

Song at the bottom 

this is not the bottom.

10 AM

 

Picasso Etchings from the NHC in 2023.

Frame it, might be worth something some day.

The whole shebang.

Hilary far Left.

New wave far right.

90L in the middle.

Moisture surge from EPAC N into Carib

I'm going to try and do this in order, carefully as it's hard for many to even know what to look at first. Most people who do not live in the Caribbean or Florida are watching and listening to stories on Hurricane Hilary as it approaches the desert SW and many more states than just California. This is like every storm aimed at Tampa in the 5 Day Cone and no one realizes other places are getting the wicked weather. "Hurricane Heads to LA" sells, but "Hurricane Racing towards Barstow California doesn't get many clicks. Remember that when you hear about flooding and problems across a wide area that weren't mentioned as much as San Diego and LA!

Nuff said on Hilary for now. I will say it's got an impressive signature, a crappy core barely holding on to hurricane strength intensity but this is not about hurricane force winds as much as torrential tropical rain in desert and high desert and anywhere you have that sort of environment, add mountains and hills into the mix you are in for a lot of misery and somewhere death and destruction. It's an atmospheric river staring Hilary!

90L Center Stage.

East Caribbean Currently.

Models below:

Invest 90L

Just because it's not hitting Miami doesn't make it a Fish Storm out at sea. It most likely will slam into Hispaniola and you know how that goes, elevation + rain = flash flooding. Note it has not formed yet (tho it's in the process of forming) and it could miss the island depending on exact dynamics and it's all about timing. But models are fairly consistent that Haiti and Dominican Republic are in for tropical weather. This gets a name, how strong it becomes it's too soon to tell but we are getting ready for "game time" if you know what I mean. I would so love a Discussion in an advisory personally. PR and East Cuba still needs to pay attention. In theory if the models are right, it goes right of Florida out towards Nova Scoatia.

Just 1 model.

Many models show this.

1. 90L moves towards Hispaniola.

2. Lil system in GOM heads West.

3. 90L (Emily or Franklin) hits Hispaniola.

Then once up in the North Atlantic.

Yes.... NATL is HOT.

It explodes and heads towards Canada.

Everything else plays follow the leader.

BUT...trouble lurks down the road.

More on that later.

No Name Invest.

Should be Invest 91L or 92L soon.

Headed West because the "Heat Dome" is on..

..and won't let it go North.

Currently raining over the Florida Keys...

..,but you can see it has a look to it.

Houston to the Tex Mex border pay attn.

TD 6

Not much to say.

It got a designation.

Hard to believe but it did.

Nuff said.

Invest 98L

Gets no respect.........

Center system.

Best looking on Earthnull.

Not even a TD.... 

out to sea.

But still a huge wave and a huge Invest.

Let's look closer at the new wave off of Africa.

Same model.

But earlier before the E or F storm goes to Canada.

There's our new African Wave at the base of the High.

The high mind you is not your Momma's High.

It's squished. Weak on the Western edge.

Allowing storms to escape.

That's great.

Til it's not.

More on that later.

The EURO is apparently on strike.

Same high tho, notice that.

Same set up just not as well developed storms.

90L is the main player here today.

GFS below.

Top model CMC

NAM is a short term model.

3 days or so out over the USA

8/22 Nam takes a storm into S Texas.

Let's talk Hilary.

A lot of moisture.

Fading inner core of Hilary.

There isn't much "there" there with Hilary.

Talking WIND, circulation.

What's raining now is out ahead of Hilary, rain bands before the storm. In South Florida we are used to that. God Bless Bryan Norcross (he's on Fox Weather, who knew) and he's explaining this perfectly in that while we are watching a hurricane down in Mexico the remnants are moving up towards California, Nevada, every other state in the rain's way and he said "the set up wind wise is more like a Santa Ana" and I thought "oh my gosh YES" and I know because I lived there a long time, more than 5 years during an El Nino with flooding (on my street in West Hollywood 3 blocks South of the Studio) and well saw it all in LA when I lived there and I loved it. Every fricking drop of LA from the Mountains to Santa Monica Beach to the Queen Mary for drinks with friends to the Hollywood Sign to the Magic Castle, just beautiful. And, felt tropical rain from a distant hurricane while my family dealt with hurricanes back in Miami while I learned much about the Ranchos and the history and every fricking earthquake fault. And, then we went back to Florida. My ex is a Valley Boy living in NYC doing roles on TV and loving Broadway. Life goes on. 

Emily formed from 98L that finally got respect which means 90L will be Franklin. Spilled my coffee everywhere, cleaned it up and waited to the 11 AM so this blog is in real time but very messy. Like me at the moment as I'm dealing with some asthma (could you tell from my writing) and trying to pull it together to go out somewhere today to play in North Carolina.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

@bobbistorm on Twitter, Instagram and Threads

God I loved LA.

I really really really loved LA.

Don't ask why we moved.

Long story.

God the 80s were fun...

...on so many levels.

What a time to be in LA.

I had a grocery store near there.

Anyway ...have a great day.

I'm fine. 

Feeling better.

Going out.

Got my inhaler ;)

Need fresh air!