2023 Hurricane Season... TD6 Forms. Lots of Possible Trouble Makers. The Drama of Hilary in the Pacific. Memories of Chantal & Dean 2001

 
11 PM said this and I quote

"...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED..."

Not even showing a graphic. 

Not much different than the bottom.

Exposed center, looks like crap.

But it's got a TD designation and 98L doesn't.

Yet.

Dvorak is used to upgrade storms.

Hey you an see the naked swirl.

****

10:30 PM

We have a winner!

Short lived TD6

Not forecast to hang around long.

Red Circle to it's East is still 70%

Red Circle to it's West 70%

(sneaky little player)

GOM at 50% orange 

New Wave 30%

A look at Earthnull 

Lots of questions.

Big one behind it looks way better.

But NHC had their reasons.

Friday afternoon it was evident that what is now TD6 did have a circulation that was naked, north of the colorful convection to it's South. Again, shear and dry air at mid levels was knocking it around. 98L is still large and has a very good circulation on Earthnull, but NHC is holding off on it for their own reasons keeping it at 70% for what seems forever. The new invest is 90L that could become a player down the road. Zoom Earth has a nice layout with all of the systems in one place.

Cone for TD6

Regarding 90L

Most models go North... 

I'd think it'd do that if it was stronger.

Vs weaker West. 

But who knows?

Mother Nature hiding her rules behind her back!

Models 

Has a strong convective cell in the Islands.

Another one tailing it to it's rear.

A weather maker for sure.

Looking at the larger view.

I am most concerned with the tropical wave curently near Florida and the Florida Straits that will move into the Gulf of Mexico and may be a short lived TS (if it has time to pull it's act together, as always it needs a center not just hot water) and the wave currently in the Islands known as Invest 90L. 98L is far out at sea and expected to continue moving up into the Atlantic .... TD6 is already looking faint. New wave off Africa we will talk about tomorrow.  Below you can see the future rain signature for the US and note that the streak of westbound rain near Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and the rain from Hurricane Hilary being pulled, sucked so to speak up into the West Coast in a rare tropical event for California, Nevada and all the states to the North of there. It's imporatnt also to understand the rain is not just from Hilary but the set up that is pulling Hilary up towards the North Pole the way hurricanes are often sucked up, moving fast up the East Coast by a frontal system. August 2023 is obviously a different sort of year. And, in the middle is High Pressure and way too much hot air. A hit by a hurricane from the South in the Gulf of Mexico could be a High pusher/drought breaker but alas the Time Traveler in the news with all the talk of the September 6th Hurricane on the East Coast hasn't mentioned details.

I don't know what to say about that but she's getting play and everyone is playing her psychic discussion with their thoughts, if you had to pick a date to get a Florida Hurricane going up the East Coast towards the Carolinas September 6th would be as good as any to pull out of a hat. Some astrologers have talked on Mercury (rules wind) alignments maybe she was talking to an astrologer not a time traveler but hey which would you believe more an astrologer or time traveler??? Inquiring minds want to know. 

West Coast moisture feed being sucked up fast.

Sucking Hilary up fast.

Training moisture behind Hilary's center.

Watch the area in the Islands now...

...watch the moisture around Florida moving into GOM.

Will update at top if anything changes.

Longer better blog on Sunday.

Personally had a couple of hard days after the little grandchildren left, and felt sick but not so sick but just nagging sick. Maybe I caught Anna's cold or Emily's "teething" who knows... and when I get sick I just normally think "allergy? cold? flu? Covid?" and if there's no known Covid and no fever I don't take a Covid Test. I did have a horrible headache though. Asthma for a day or two and this morning I felt much better, so I took a walk (not coughing) in the glorious 79 degree weather and got out a bit... came home, slept, rested, read so much. I read an old diary from 2000 and 2001, boy did I bitch about the tropics. Something nasty about Chantal (shhh not telling here) and Dean didn't get much good press from me either. And, yes I write about the tropics (odd comments like "Chantal crapped out" and discussion of who I was dating and talking to online and apparently my kids who were living it up with parties one night after another. 

Okay, I'll be honest...not going to kiss and tell but August 20, 2001:

"Chantal looks like shit tho!" oh bad day, Dolphins lost also!

I will never forget Chantal, just went on and on and on until it ran out of water. Peaked at 70 MPH!

Dean was not much better.

And then the hurricane season was eclipsed by 911, though there are some tropical comments here and there. And you know the typical 10 Things I Hate About You aimed at someone I won't mention or two people I won't but suffice it to say the Muse was pissed at Writer/Director and a few others. Life goes on, life went on and eventually I had a blog online to rant at a special someone, or make someone else laugh and talk about the tropics thinking no one was gonna read it anyway. Boy was I wrong. 

Thank you all for reading along. This season does remind me in ways of 2001 (weak La Nina) and I'd say "don't worry all my secrets will be ... " but I believe Sharon's son has her cell phone (awkward) so not all her secrets and my secrets went to her grave and names were usually disguised ;) 

Ps I don't hate you anymore... 

At least he didn't park a huge yacht in the school prking lot!

:)