Tropics Slow Still - Tropical Wave in Bahamas I'm Watching (Not much else to watch) Models Show Possibilities Down the Line. Up at 3 AM Restless and Writing...

 

I couldn't sleep.

I fell asleep crazy early.

Hate when that happens .....

...but I'm here now so I'm writing.

I saw this image on a website somewhere earlier and thought it was a good illustration of a different way to look at the tropics. In the Pacific when we study earthquakes we call it a "ring of fire" where earthquakes are prone to happen. In the tropics we have areas that become richly laden with moisture where tropical development can often take place if the conditions are in alignment. Between Africa and South America we have an area known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone. When tropical waves leave Africa and when they begin to develop they move West, usually South of a large High Pressure Ridge, and as they approach the Caribbean Islands they often pull more to the North moving WNW or even NW depending on the exact edge of the High Pressure in place. When there's an opening or a weakness they pull North and "out to sea" and if the High is strong they move further West until a weakness allows them to pull North further West.

Why do they do this you may ask? The basic description of a hurricane on some level is that they move energy from the Equator towards the Poles. Our planet is alive with complicated rivers in the atmosphere and not stagnant. Hurricanes move the energy around as do Cold Fronts in that they pull energy from the Northern Latitudes down towards the tropics. Isn't Planet Earth a beautiful place to live? Okay, let's call it interesting as your particular neck of the woods might not be paradise. But then again Hawaii was commonly thought to be paradise until late yesterday when the horrific videos came out showing the horrors of when living in Paradise goes so horribly wrong. 

Hurricane Donna 1960

Let's get back to the ring of moisture up above in the top image. Something is not quite right in the tropics and it may just be a facet of the overall set up of Climatology that doesn't usually kick in until the end of August and then huge hurricanes form from well developed tropical waves that roll off Africa with a low pressure system attached as they move out over the Atlantic Ocean. A prime example of this is the tropical wave that would eventually be known as Donna was so strong that it contribued to a deadly plane crash. As the then tropical wave was about to exit Africa it's strong, severe weather wrapped was said to have contribued to the deadly plane crash that killed all 63 people on the Air France flight attempting to land. And, so before Donna even left Africa as a tropical wave soon to be upgraded it was already a deadly system that went on to cause much destruction as it cut a dangerous path towards the Islands and then up and over other islands carrying a huge punch when it slammed into the Florida Keys, recurving as hurricanes are want to do for the previously mentioned reason and then worked it's way all the way up the Eastern Seaboard. Donna was the start of a busy decade of hurricane disasters in the Atlantic Basin.

Donna is the epitome of a long tracker.

Started strong and went the distance.

Light grays and white is moisture.

Water Vapor.

Dark aeas are dry and High Pressure.

We are not there yet.

Blame it on weak waves suppressed by the dust.

African Saharan Dust.

SAL.

This loop from Tropical Tidbits is my favorite!

This year anway, I have a few favorites.

And this is why we have no signs of development.

At least regarding the MDR

(Main Development Region)

Tho they can pop up close in.....

Excellent Tweet from Eric Webb.

Note the wording "if it manages to find a less hostile environment" and that is how often systems that did not form in the MDR show signs of life closer in to the US coastline (or the Caribbean Islands) and suddenly they become compelling areas of interest to be monitored. This year in general Don found the North Atlantic quite friendly.  The tropical wave that ended up in the Pacific that became Hurricane Dora that is still going strong on her way to the Western Pacific is a prime example of a system that found a less hostile environment and infact found a friendly environment and after it developed a strong core it just kept on going West. See Dora below, it left the Atlantic (not shown) moved into the EPAC, traversed the Central Pacific and is still going headed West. D storms often have quite the punch in the tropics it seems. 

Moving away from Dora....

Close in to the Bahamas there is a Tropical Wave.

Just a tropical wave.

But it's been interesting to watch.

Phil Ferro on air in Miami at WSVN...

...made a good post earlier on it's prospects.

Tropical Waves are fickle.

Until and IF a core develops they are fickle.

They are unknowns in ways, tropical waves, and unless they develop a center tracking the exact path and amount of rain in any one area is an estimate, a forecast that is IFFY until we see it evolve in real time. I'm watching it as it's weather and there isn't much else to watch. Miami is one of my homes, born and raised there and I have written and lectured on South Florida History there and it's adjacent hurricanes often. Some years, such as this one, it's harder for waves to become named storms. Subsidence ...sinking air... SAL ... poor quality of waves themselves perhaps and again climataology as not rung it's bell that it rings in late August that officially starts the real hurricane season. So stay tuned.

Again let's look at the SAL shown in RED.

My friend Dabuh would draw an eye and teeth there.

Looks a bit like a big red shark.

Actually has an eye!

Below the SAL are tropical waves.

Last image.

Top left is a storm complex with severe weather.

Moving down and out towards the ocean.

Middle left is the previous system.

Frontal boundary.

Our Tropical wave also there.

They seem to be interacting.

A work in progress.

To the right there are white dotted areas.

Dry Saharan Dust.

Beneath them suppressed tropical waves.

Many online want to discuss, argue and debate the possibility that the forecast for a robust hurricane season despite El Nino due to warmer water than normal in the MDR isn't going to verify. Until we round the corner on August we really won't know if this is a late starting season (after a flurry of early storms) or if the forecast has inherent problems and Mother Nature may not provide the numbers that many expected to see. 

As for me.........I'm a believer in the El Nino though what kind of El Nino we end up with I'm not sure, but it's a factor. Winter may come earlier than later and if so it will shut down the hurricane season early.

Understand everything here is hangs on the word IF as we are not there yet, it's all conjecture and attempts to convey what to expect with forecasts that often change based on real time events. Models are persistent and then they lose the hurricane they promised and until the High is set up locked in place it's all about of IFS in the forecast. Some years are wonky and they just don't play out like your typical year and remember there are few tropical waves over the span of history that have come off that strong as Donna did but when they do they are often trouble another historical hurricane was Hugo a classic September hurricane. And then in 1969 Camille developed deep in the Caribbean as it was unable to form out in the Atlantic in the MDR and remember some have 1969 as an analog year for this year. 

Stay tuned. It's not September yet. I did say I thought we'd have something definitive to talk about around August 18th give or take a few days. 

As for models, the GFS stays ominously quiet as it's no longer producing a hurricane of the day that may hit some distant coastal city, and yet the EURO shows a promising large wave closes off down the line and the ICON shows two waves that are contenders for development, but not for a while and not yet consistent enough and not in the 7 day window as of yet that the NHC is using.

Thanks for reading this long blog written at 3 AM in a quiet dining room, at the table on my new chromebook that actually types well and is new.... I type fast, I destroy keyboards. My laptop is in the bedroom where my husband is sleeping and I'm up making lists in the dining room for what I need to do as the next few days here may be busier than normal. Trying hard not to move the China Cabinet and switch it with the antique small buffet with the tea and brandy, bourbon, scotch and most the most excellent Frangelico sitting on it. Actually I moved it there from the living room earlier today so maybe just leave sleeping furniture where they sit? Shame to waste this much energy at 3 AM so I decided to write and let it all out, let it flow and go with the words that appear in my head in some sort of attempt to explain why "yes it's been very slow lately" and why it may not stay slow, but the truth is we just don't know yet. Smiling, feels good to get all of this out of my system. This is afterall my online weather diary isn't it? 

Be patient a little bit longer and if we hit August 26th and there's no named storms threatening any island communities or threatening to ruin Labor Day Weekend at our beaches then we can say the forecast seems to have been off some.... and yet... seasons such as these can produce late season monsters even when July or August was ominously quiet.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter, Instagram and Threads. Twitter mostly weather, the other two whatever. Til then ....always Remember September!

Good link to a story on Hurricane Donna.

http://www.heidorn.info/keith/weather/almanac/arc2010/alm10sep.htm