Hurricane Harbor: 3 Systems 50% 40% 20% Add That Up ... Tropics Trying to Come to Life. Water Vapor VS Modeling? Tropical Discussion on Life & Hurricane Season.

Let's do Math.

50% Orange on the lead wave.

40% on new wave off of Africa

20% on Gulf of Mexico

______________________

110% chance something forms in 7 days.

(Totally unprofessional but hey it's my blog)

You do you...

Below we have the beautiful WV Loop.

Current as of now vs modeling the 10 day.

So much to say and yet nothing really new or definitive to say, so I'll say this we are getting closer to the last week in August and September 1st aka Labor Day Weekend. Beginning of the End of Summer, and we are at twilight time where we in the Northern Latitudes can smell Fall in the air early in the morning or once the sun goes down. My brother told me that in Miami the 7-Eleven has PSL creamers for your coffee!

Note the beautiful, large, juicy wave off of Africa juicing up the atmosphere trying to take large bites out of the Saharan Dust that has ruled the Atlantic all summer. A wave train Westbound.... note a small wave that made it to the Islands as a weak wave but is still intact. What does it do next? Have heard 4 different opinions from 3 of my best tropical meteorologists. Flip a coin for this morning. A weak front slices through the South hovering around the NC/SC border. Dark indigo blue is the High Pressure Zone. In the EPAC there is tropical trouble at a lower latitude than we have seen popular in the Atlantic. But things are a changing... it's all in the wind, all there in the water vapor loop. But people want to see models.

Remember this about models, if they don't jive with what you see happening synoptically on satellite imagery they probably are not going to verify and they just be modeling. Garbage in, garbage out and until we have a center of a system, a core for the models to play with and dropsondes to drop into we are just playing Fantasy Hurricane Season. Soon, in September it gets real!

EURO makes a solid system in the Atlantic.

Icon also but with a stronger High.

GFS run shows the hurricane in the Atlantic.

EPAC Hurricane Cane.

Surprise Package for iCyclone in GOM.

What he gets for looking at the GFS too much.

So that's it, we are all a little bit punchy, silly, thinking in rhymes and lyrics trying to remind you that Hurricane Season is a thing, it happens even if you think it'll never happen to you .... it can and will if you live in Hurricane Country. So prepare and enjoy today... keep your sense of humor and don't eat the Twinkies you stored in the Hurricane Supplies!