Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Storm Fred AGAIN ... Aiming at Florida Panhandle Again. Grace Has Tropical Troubles But Still a TS. Invest 96L Out There with Low Chances. Tropical Triangle of Trouble.

Tropical Storm Fred once again.

Fred basically reformed further North as it has had this wonky exchange of energy within it's every present envelope and the game is back on. Currently they do not have Fred making landfall as a strong tropical storm keeping intensity at 50 MPH which I do think is too conservative as it quickly reformed and is looking stronger so expect that intensify forecast to go up IF Fred continues his morning actions into later this afternoon. Models pulling right again, really this is why you don't live and die but a model run or two, and now their cone which is right of models is moving back towards St. Georges Island/Carrabelle and all the other cute beaches in that part of the Florida coastline. Apalachicola Bay area is back in play.

As for Grace......she's also confounding the models/NHC because she is basically South of forecasted plots, but again it's had a double barreled set up with energy moving from one blob to the other and while Grace looked great for a NY Minute it once again disintergrated into lots of convection between two of three blobs. The problems with blobs is if the models are working off one blob and the other blob is trying to be the new center then the models are as crappy as the ones that didn't see Fred trekking across all of Cuba the way I said it could do days before it did.