Invest 94 Closer to Clarification

 

Brief update on Invest 94L approaching the Caribbean Islands waiting to see if the NHC will upgrade this to a potential tropical cyclone in order to post watches and warnings for various islands in its path. While it has made huge gains towards being an organized system with a closed circulation it’s not there yet. On Earthnull it looks more like a thumbprint rather than a tropical depression with a closed center. It looked intense on the Dvorak satellite image this morning but failed to maintain that intensity. 

It isn’t there yet but getting there day by day. 

Where it goes depends on its strength as much as the atmospheric patterns once it gets closer to Florida. As long as it takes its time intensifying it will lag behind the models expected positions and trend more to the West. Last night some models showed Cuban interaction vs the Florida Keys and this afternoon models show it gets easily into the Gulf of Mexico. This is why I don’t chase models as it’s tiring and makes you dizzy. I watch the system and the evolving atmospheric pattern. 

Bottom Line:

It’s too soon to tell. Everyone needs to watch it. If it develops a solid core and enters warm water it could be stronger than expected. The Water Vapor Loop shows a high pressure ridge to its North for a while and that is what’s keeping it more westbound and pulling the models to the left on each new run.  

I’ll update this evening. 

Waiting to see if the NHC blinks and goes with designation to post warnings for the islands. 

More to come this evening 

Besos BobbiStorm