3 Contestants for the Tropical Dating Game - New Wave Coming off of Africa Soon. Invests 91, 92, 93.... Still Weak BUT Models Keep Running...

 

92L has  40% in the middle.

Yellow circles 20%

Doesn't even add up to 100 together ...

I know it looks ominous doesn't it? It's one of those psychology tests in that you either see the Atlantic half full or half empty. It's either fruit loops or possible named storms coming at the East Coast like speeding bullets. It reminds me of  The Dating Game though this season feels more like the Bachelor. You keep wondering which is the first Invest to be kicked off the show and which one is going to make it to "meet the parents" if you know what I mean. I'm pretty sure most people have watched at least one episode before getting hooked or tweeting how stupid it is but yes we have contestants currently.

Red is for go ...hot water.

Green means no go.

Yellow and orange .. maybe.

Again unless a wave comes off of Africa spinning in August it has to work harder and harder to get to a sweet spot to begin spinning. The water is still marginal for development until those waves get way closer and as weak waves they stay lower and in play but once they try and develop they can climb more with  latitude. Every once in a while one wave stands out from the rest and hits a spot where it can develop this time of year. 

Every strong wave looks hot and sexy over Africa, dressed up in deep red convection and yet once they party too much trying to get into the water the water cools them off and suddenly it's not as easy as it looked like it would be. This dance happens every year where they tease us over Africa and then reality sets in. Yes, there is Saharan Dust evident in this picture to the North of the waves with dotted sky blue clouds mixed in with the dark blue of the ocean. But, the SAL is further to the North suddenly and not as evident as usual. To everything there is a season and that includes SAL before the Hurricanes begin to form. 

The first week shows minimal chances.

The second week shows more chances.

When there is a parade of tropical waves with Invest numbers and nothing specific it's good to pay attention to this timeless classic image. This current period until August 10th shows possibilities and the following week shows more potential. 

As for models, which I can show tomorrow, there's not much to show because each new wave has a higher percentage of attaining named status while its over Africa or just coming off and over the subsequent days the chances go down, down, down and then a new wave rolls off. Tonight Invest 93L looks possible, while Invest 92L is showing some signs of circulation on Earthnull and 91L is like chopped liver that was left out on the counter over night and no one wants to go near it to throw it out. I'm talking model wise....

In truth once any wave that stays alive and shows staying power gets past the green in the image at the top where the water is a "no go" for development and limps into the orange and golds to the red color closer in ... only then ...does it have real potential. Til then it's all model manipulation and bored kids with nothing better to do than wait around for each model run to come out. Note... everyone gets geeky once in a while but you know you're just rolling dice to see what numbers come out. It's time to prepare for later in the season and to make plans but it's not time to put them into place.

The ensemble models show clues.

I'm not sold on any one model or wave.

What I am sold on is more of the same.

Spoiler alert: Most of the models show the storms curving once past the islands. And none are currently screaming Red Alert "Major Hurricane" so breathe a bit when looking at the multicolor main page from the NHC. Once in a while one develops early as we say this year, but the tracks keep following the same pattern and for now Texas looks safe but that's an illusion in early August.  

Make a plan. Make a back up plan. Keep checking in and keep watching the calendar.

Ten days from now we will be most likely tracking  named storms and possibly hurricanes not tropical waves trying to get a date on a Saturday night. Tonight the new model runs are showing Invest 93L looks better than Invest 92L looked a few days ago and note Invest 94L will come off of Africa with more bulk but what these waves really need is warm water vs a cold shower.

Nuff said.

I'll update on Sunday later in the day when i have more to say. Trying to help my daughter as much as I can and there's much I can't really do - if only I could wave a magic wand and change the world but all  you can do is take things one day at a time. For this week I'm here and then we will see what we see but we will eventually see an active season. Perhaps not as active as the media tries to play it but we will see strong dangerous hurricanes and every day that goes by we are one day closer to that reality.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O8m0mMDpHw