Which model is right.
Above or below.
Every model run a bit different.
Florida in play but currently....
... the player is just an Invest.
New run... last run below.
Take your pick.
This is 94L the only real concern presently.
As I have said for days the concern of an East Coast Loaded Season is a serious concern. The pattern so far has been that way and it is what it is.... if things play out the way the models currently agree we have our typical Florida thriller with the probability but not certainty it turns offshore and glides up the coast as a few have done in the last five or six years. Talk on a stuck pattern tho no one in Florida is sad to see them slide away. If only that happens.... it could just as well stay weak and get further West before making a turn and ramping up and pulling it together closer in. All I can say is check back every day and make sure your plans are set because it's just a matter of time now.
Nite... BobbiStorm
Models....
92L has been dropped.
94L has popped up.
Both have 40% chances of development.
Link to loop. 94 L has been tagged it's the strong area of convection in the overall wave gyre that is showing promise of developing at the moment. Often out of confusion comes clarity and things become more clear over time. Models can be unreliable until a center forms, Lord I have typed that a million times since I had this blog but it is true. The current candidate is being eyed and getting prepped for a debate. There's currently much debate over which wave wins the name Fred first. I will update later today with details. Please read last night's blog I wrote as it's relevant still.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=94L&product=vis-swir
This would show up in the Florida Straits eventually.
This could change and impact Cuba.
Or the Bahamas.
Forming or intensifying close in is the problem.
Models show a SE coast cruiser for now.
Without a clear cut center and well developed storm...
... models are shooting out possibilities.
And nothing more.
93L could go lower.
94L is already higher.
If so it could get into the Caribbean.
So you have questions down the road.
Where would 93L turn?
Florida?
Or in the GOM.
Is Elsa the trendsetter for the season?
Something to think on...
Read my thoughts from last night.
I'll update later.
Just for now ... know they are there.
The end game will become clear soon.
But first we need a real viable center...
..a center with convection wrapped around it.
Not a mess!
Back later... BobbiStorm
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