Updated 5 PM - FRED Still a Potential Troublemaker - Weak, Doing It the Hard Way Taking on Hispanoila... Messy Storm with Multiple Centers Still but POTENTIAL Close in Florida Troublemaker

Not much to say right  now.

It is what it is til it's not.

NHC basically has said that they are keeping it at Tropical Storm intensity until it comes off of Hispaniola and lands in the water. It may be downgraded to TD status then but they will see what they see then. The long term game is the same in that it is expected to head towards "Florida" some models take the East Coast and ride the storm up the backbone of Florida similar to what it's doing in Dominican Republic and others take it further West into the GOM then bend it sharper to the North so the end point is the same unless it takes the  more Easterly path stays over land and croaks somewhere around Orlando as if it simply ran out of gas on the Turnpike. It "could" stay off the East coast as the earlier models showed and if so it could fill up on hot gas over the very warm Gulfstream. 

It's really a crap shoot right now to be as polite as I can so going to let it go and see what happens tomorrow. If the NHC can do that so can I. I may update later tonight if anything becomes apparent.

The problem is Fred has a "center" the NHC is tracking (running models off of too, so if it's wrong the  models are garbage) and it has a well defined mid-level center. Watching Fred move is not a thing of beauty, it moves in some sort of wonky way that seems to have worked so far as it did get the F name but it's not pretty and it's not going to get it to St. George Island if it continues this dance. Perhaps one of the centers will relocate or take off in another direction and Fred could be dead in the water. But the betting line is that it stays alive and past the shear (impacting what is left of it) it perks up nice and proper and heads for a second landfall. 

What a drama! Stay tuned to see in real time how this all plays out.

Love and kisses BobbiStorm

Ps...seriously I just can't be as honest as I would like. The environment it's in his very unfriendly between shear and the hard mountains of Hispaniola and yet because it doesn't have much of a real circulation there isn't much to break up so as stormy weather it moves up towards the Florida Straits and perhaps past the shear over warm water it will fulfill it's potential!

Read below what I wrote earlier today. 

* * * 

Remember Fred can be ANYWHERE in this Cone.

On the low edge over Cuba.

Or crawling up I-95.

It changes at 11 AM.

Do NOT watch the middle of this cone.

But pay attention to the whole cone.

POTENTIAL is the Key Word for the Day.

Fred is still all "potential"

A small, very small center....

...with weather far removed from the center.

GFS couldn't find it yesterday.

Not visible on Earthnull today.

Watching, waiting still....

...does it live up to it's potential?

The top small red dot near land is the center.

(there are multiple centers competing)

So the red at the bottom isn't Fred.

The convection N of PR isn't Fred.

The "center" the NHC is tracking is that stmall dot.

Partially over DR partially over water.

Don't look at the big 'pocket" ..it's pretty.

But that is potential!

 Currently it's straddling red warm water (energy)

Then there's a gap of yellow and green.

BUT if it gets up into the REDS ...

...CLOSE IN near Florida it's POTENTIAL trouble.

Great map from KLYSTRON9

There are mutliple good model sites.

If you are a newbie or just lazy.

Use www.spaghettimodels.com

Models change often remember that.

General movement is key.

Does it go WNW or more W than WNW

Then snap sharper to the N vs NW

Ot does it die over Hispanoila?

Or does it thrive in the GOM?

So many questions on it's potential... u see?

Let's start today with the exact meaning of the word "potential" up above because currently Tropical Storm Fred, a minimal tropical storm, is still a potential troublemaker down the road as it approaches Florida over warm water IF it's multiple centers cluster into one real center and the convection wraps. Again, Fred has potential but he's as much of a "screw up" as Fred Flintstone was in Bedrock; a lovable mess you can't stop watching. Fred F had a good heart, that was his real saving grace and why Wilma loved him but here I'm still trying to find where Tropical Storm Fred's heart is as it's still messy.  As the Tropical Discussion yesterday wrote when explaining why it was not a tropical storm... it has multiple problems but still was close to Tropical Storm status expected to be upgraded and was as forecast but giving it a name didn't make it any closer to hurricane history fame.

As I have said for days, I'm less concerned what it does IN THE CARIBBEAN and more concerned what it does when whatever is left of it gets into the very warm Florida Straits where air is unstable and even a crappy afternoon thunderstorm is stronger than anything Fred has in it currently. If it does crawl up the Florida Keys and slide up along the West Coast of Florida it can really find it's groove and wrap and intensify. Til then it's "potential" trouble and a minimal tropical storm at best.

One last thing to mention is that much of it's weather could be far removed from it's "center" and while it's trying to cross Upper or Lower Matecumbe Key the Miami area can be getting slammed with the real weather.  Shear here plays a big part and shear down the road is why models have been iffy on how strong it will become. A rare "could happen" is it comes off so weak it moves further West towards low pressure over West Cuba and crawls along and even then it can make a sharper turn to the North and still end up within the current cone for the 5th Day. Note how concentrated that convection is over East Cuba and frankly it's stronger than anything Fred has going on right now as for concentrated energy.

Honestly at 10 AM Wednesday morning Fred's future is still a real crap shoot, but there is potential for real trouble down the tropical road.

Newest models for Fred at 10:15 AM 

The models are in love with Invest 95L today yet they don't seem to remember that the early forecasts were for it to stay LOW and for Invest 94L aka Fred to go Higher and slide up the Florida East Coast towards the Carolinas yet today we have models showing Fred going up the West Coast of Florida and curving back a bit.  Older models showed 95L staying low slamming into Central America or the Yucatan or ... well they are models, based on science but changing as the data comes in differently. So now Fred is low and models think 95L will be the "real player" here going higher showing the same models now that were shown for 94L days ago.

AGAIN........... watch models, look at them but DO NOT CHASE MODELS! Chase Hurricanes not Models!

I'll update later today. I'll add in 11 AM at the top here so you can compare and contrast that with the 5 AM data package above.  Later today I'll talk on models for both Fred and 95L but seriously remember that potential does not guarantee a Doctorate degree yet sometimes you get a late bloomer and my concerns for Fred is that Fred could be a late bloomer indeed... close in for Florida.

Unpacking. Home.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps forgive me for not proofing this I'm getting over allergy issues and going to go take a shower again. Good to be home!