Tropical Storm Fred Forms - ALL of FL in the Cone!

 

Fred finally!

All of Florida and parts of Georgia are in the Cone.

Alabama also for now... 

...Carolinas get leftover tropical rain it seems.

There are lots of pluses and minues here with regard to Tropical Storm Fred. 

Water near Florida is very warm.

Land interaction and how much land interaction may mess it up a bit.

Can it squeeze it's poorly stacked center through the Mona Passage and avoid Hispanoila?

Can the center relocate or stack vertically allowing it to ventilate and intensify faster?

Models are iffy but pulling to the right now after pulling to the left yesterday.

Where exactly does the High end and how fast does Fred turn more to the North vs WNW?

Will Fred slow down and dawdle and miss it's doorway North or will it catch the bus gus?

NHC still keeping the lid on intensity.

Time will tell.......

This will all be discussed tomorrow. But I do want to say it is more likely that the cone will be nudged to the right vs the left, based on current modeling of a front dipping down and the forecast location of the edge of the High Pressure. As always weather is fliud and models have a hard time grasping intensity. Currently the NHC forecasts a minimal tropical storm and they have held off on it approaching hurricane strength. I'd say that if it manages to get past Hispanoila intact and cruise through the very warm waters of the Florida Straits then all bets are off on staying a Tropical Storm and it could attain Hurricane intensity. That said it has a long way to go before it gets to that sweet spot that tropical systems love... the warm, fertile waters of the Florida Straits and Florida Bay on the Gulfside.

Full discussion Wednesday morning. Back home in Raleigh, pulled into the driveway as they named Fred so I'm home and I'll be more on top of things the rest of the week.

Stay tuned.... Florida definitly looking down at Fred tonight!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... wild, wild electrical storm... an old fashioned lightning storm with nonstop lighting as we drove across the border from Virgnina into North Carolina. Nice, always nice to enjoy a storm!

"Although the surface and low-level circulations are vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However, that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from it's earlier 100-nml southeastward displacement"